Canelo Alvarez is a consensus favorite across the sportsbook marketplace for Saturday’s huge super middleweight title bout against Terence Crawford, but the underdog is making serious headway as the match approaches.
Alvarez opened in the two-way moneyline market as a -225 favorite to Crawford’s +175, according to ESPN BET odds and by the middle of the summer, he had lengthened to -175, while Crawford shortened to +140. Alvarez received a slight bump back to -200, before the line settled into Alvarez -170 and Crawford +140 as of Friday afternoon. On the three-way line, Alvarez is -160, Crawford is +150 and the draw is +1200.
In such a high profile fight, the betting public is supporting the underdog with the appealing plus odds: All sportsbooks polled report a majority of tickets backing Crawford, with ESPN BET taking about two-third of its bet share on the 37-year-old. BetMGM senior trader Alex Rella said “Crawford has received more than double the action than Canelo” on the two-way line.
“This line is dropping like a rock,” DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN earlier in the week. “They’re just pounding Crawford leading into the weekend.”
That said, as with most big betting events, much of the action will probably come within the final 24 hours, so there’s still ample time for higher-stakes bettors to back Alvarez at a more appealing price, which bookmakers are watching out for as they work to balance their books.
“I anticipate the action will shift more in Alvarez’ direction as we get closer to fight night,” Rella said in an email statement.
Professional boxing is not nearly the betting attraction it once was, but a super fight like this one is a welcome sight for sportsbooks and fans of the sport alike.
Avello and ESPN BET VP of sportsbook growth & strategy Adam Landeka both say that it will be tough to beat the handle of 2024’s exhibition match between Jake Paul and Mike Tyson, but Canelo-Crawford is shaping up to be likely the most-bet match of the year at least. The bout will also probably benefit as the nightcap for a great day of sports.
“With a full slate of college football as a lead-in, and this event being widely accessible without a PPV wall, I wouldn’t be surprised to see engagement pick up even further on Saturday afternoon and evening,” said Landeka over email. “This is shaping up to be one of the biggest boxing events we’ve offered.”
