Coming out of Week 0 and into Week 1, the Big 12 already has three of their sixteen teams with results on their record after Saturday. On Thursday, though, USA Today projected what each record would be for every team in the FBS, including all those in the Big 12.
Paul Myerberg and Jim Sergent released those record predictions for college football last week coming into the unofficial start to the season in Week 0, which featured three teams from this league in a ranked conference matchup between No. 17 Kansas State and No. 22 Iowa State as well as a game for Kansas. In the end, this was the conference, as expected by many, that was the biggest mystery to them as far as the final standings considering how many programs could contend out of it this fall, with eleven projected to have winning records overall here with nearly half the conference projected at 8-4 or better.
“Good luck picking this one,” they wrote. “Kansas State is the front-runner by a whisper behind defending conference champion Arizona State, transfer-heavy Texas Tech, TCU, Utah and Iowa State. Look for as many as six or seven teams to make a run at the top spot. The depth in this league is noticeable: Brigham Young, Kansas, Houston and others are very solid, well-coached teams capable of knocking off other Power Four competition in non-conference play.”
Here’s now how USA Today projected those final records across the Big 12:
Coming out of Week 0, this first-place projection isn’t going well for Kansas State. That’s with the Wildcats having lost 24-21 to the Cyclones in Dublin, Ireland to open the season at 0-1.
K-State still has the whole season to go from here as they come back stateside, with a still manageable league schedule waiting for them starting in mid-September and a resumé of consistency record-wise going back a decade and a half since 2011. Still, with a three-point loss conference across the pond to start, they’ll have just one loss left in their remaining eleven to prove this prediction right after being USA Today’s pick here to win the Big 12.
Arizona State, who surprised last season in going on to win the Big 12, is then in a three-way tie for second-best record in the conference at 9-3 overall and in a five-way tie for second in the league at 6-3. That’s after finishing with their second-most wins in school history and one of their better records all-time at 11-3 last year in their second under Kenny Dillingham.
The Sun Devils will open their non-conference this weekend, projected to have a 3-0 start including a road win at Mississippi State from the SEC. Then, from there, a difficult conference schedule await as they try to get back to Arlington by December.
Texas Tech is all-in for year four under Joey McGuire, having had solid, winning records in each of his seasons there but ones which weren’t good enough for much else. Now, though, USA Today has the investment paying off for the Red Raiders with a projection of their best record since 2008.
This prediction has Texas Tech opening at 3-0, including a win over Oregon State. Come conference play, though, the Red Raiders go on to win two-thirds of their games here in being part of the standings race for the Big 12 Championship.
Finally, in that three-way tie as well is Utah, who’s coming off its first losing record since having one in consecutive seasons in 2012 and 2013. However, after their worst mark in a dozen years in their debut in the conference, the Utes will be right back in contention based on this projection at USA Today.
Utah will open their season on Saturday with, per this prediction, a win at UCLA to close their non-conference at 3-0. The Utes then too are projected to win two-thirds of their games come league play in the Big 12.
Similarly, we now have three teams tied at an overall record of 8-4. That starts with TCU, who’s two and a half years removed from playing for the national title in 2022 and having since bounced back from a losing record in 2023 in going 9-4 in 2024.
This prediction has the Horned Frogs losing at least one of their non-conference games, with them opening a week from today at North Carolina as well as, less than two weeks later, hosting a playoff team from last season in SMU. Still, at 6-3 overall against the Big 12, TCU would still be in the running to win the Big 12 by season’s end.
Iowa State is one of two teams from the conference that already has a win this season, starting with that 24-21 win over Kansas State in Ireland. That already has them one victory towards meeting both of these projections after posting their most wins in school history a year ago at 11-3, finishing as the runner-up in the league to ASU.
The Cyclones will now return to the states to play their non-conference, with USA Today likely projecting a loss for them in the CyHawk on September 6th in Ames. Then, not resuming their conference schedule until September 27th, Iowa State will play eight league games over nine weeks as a team predicted here to be in contention to again make the Big 12 Championship.
Colorado just experienced a significant shift in their wins over two seasons under Deion Sanders, going from 1-11 (1-8) in 2022 to 9-4 (7-2) in 2024. Now, after some notable changes this offseason in Boulder, the Buffaloes are projected to be right around that same mark with Coach Prime in 2025.
This prediction is likely expecting an opening loss to Georgia Tech on Friday before losing one more conference game than the teams listed above, having the Buffs finishing in a three-way tie for third in the Big 12. Still, considering the turnover from last season to this one and the overall trajectory of the program, this would be another successful year by Sanders.
After a pair of losing seasons, Baylor finished at 8-5 overall to enter this year trending upward. That said, the Bears aren’t projected as well here coming out of their slate in the Big 12.
Baylor will open with two very difficult games to begin with, with one projected to be a loss, as they’ll host Auburn on Friday before going to SMU next weekend on Saturday. Then, opening conference play with the top two here in their first three as well as four teams ahead of them here in total, the Bears aren’t predicted to finish much better than .500 in conference play.
Kansas is the third team with a Week 0 result after winning 31-7 over Fresno State. Still, based on this projection, the Jayhawks may be going about .500 the rest of the way in their eleven remaining games.
With a non-conference loss, USA Today is likely predicting a loss at Missouri, which is their first game in the rivalry since it ended in 2011. Kansas then goes on here to be predicted to lose four games in conference play, with several of those likely coming over what’s a difficult second half of the season from October 11th on.
BYU was in contention last season for the Big 12 with one of its all-time best records at 11-2. However, for this season, USA Today has the Cougars coming back down closer to just bowl eligibility.
Brigham Young opens with three games in the non-conference over the first four weeks, including one that looks maybe easier now after Stanford lost at Hawaii in Week 0. Still, from there, the Cougars are projected to have a losing record in league play
Houston Cougars (7-5, 4-5)
UCF Knights (5-7, 3-6)
Oklahoma State Cowboys (5-7, 3-6)
Cincinnati Bearcats (5-7, 3-6)
West Virginia Mountaineers (4-8, 2-7)
Arizona Wildcats (3-9, 1-8)
