The post Valkyries dream, nightmare matchup scenarios for 2025 WNBA Playoffs appeared first on ClutchPoints.
The Golden State Valkyries are the feel-good story of the 2025 WNBA season. From becoming the first expansion team to clinch a playoff spot to selling out every home game this season at Chase Center, the Valkyries can call their first year in the W an all-around success.
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But if you ask the players or head coach Natalie Nakase, winning was an expectation, not a dream. Sure, making the playoffs is a huge milestone for a team that no one saw coming, but as Nakase said in the wake of the Golden State’s 84-80 comeback win over the Dallas Wings, they don’t plan on lingering in their celebrations.
“We’re not done yet. Maybe after this season, after this is all done, I’ll reflect. But right now, I’m already thinking about Minnesota. I’m already thinking about the next step,” Nakase said before going through a laundry list of things to improve on over the next couple of days.
“I got to stay present; I got to stay where my feet are. … I really don’t allow them to celebrate. They can. Obviously, they can enjoy this. But I also keep them humble. Like, ‘Hey, y’all want to keep going? Y’all want to keep making great strides? Then let’s stay focused.’”
But while the Valkyries will take their final three games of the season one day at a time, they are certainly beginning to game-plan potential playoff matchups, if they haven’t already begun to do so. Knowing how diligent Nakase and her staff are about scouting, they’re bound to have somebody going through the tape of the four potential teams they may play.
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So let’s run through the Valkyries’ potential playoff scenarios and gauge their chances of pulling off an upset in the first round.
The Powerhouses: Minnesota Lynx and Las Vegas Aces
Candice Ward-USA TODAY Sports
I don’t think it’s controversial to say a potential three-game series with A’ja Wilson or Napheesa Collier would pose serious matchup problems even for a defense as intelligent and elite as the Valkyries. Sure, I can go through each of their Hall of Fame resumes, but simply put, it’s A’ja Wilson. It’s Napheesa Collier. No one has fun playing them or their teams.
But getting into the weeds of both championship contenders, the Aces and the Lynx, both teams create interesting yet opposite matchup issues that the Valkyries will have to solve should they play either team.
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With the Aces, it’s their offense. In their last two matchups, Las Vegas and Becky Hammon leveraged the versatility of Wilson as a ballhandler and playmaker to break the Valkyries’ zone defense. It was basically lights out if the Aces found Wilson in the high post at the nail.
But Hammon also schemed the off-ball action to get Jewell Lloyd and Chelsea Gray open with weakside flare screens, high-low slashing from the short corner, and overload half-court sets to swing the zone defenders. However, zone won’t be the answer for the Valkyries, at least not the primary one.
Earlier this season, Nakase talked about getting elite players out of their comfort zone by showing them different looks and being physical. Mixing it up will be a key emphasis in a potential Aces matchup. Monique Billings and Janelle Salaün, the two primary Wilson defenders Nakase used this season, will be important in executing that.
With the Lynx, it’s their defense. The Valkyries’ strength-in-numbers offensive approach has yet to crack the length, speed, and size of the best team in the league, and that was before adding DiJonai Carrington. With Collier as the anchor and their army of long 3-and-D wings, the Lynx smothered Golden State with lightning-quick rotations in man-to-man.
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In the last matchup, Minnesota let Collier lurk off of nonshooters, which muddied up the Valkyries’ pick-and-roll game as well as their spread offense. In a potential 1-8 matchup, ball movement and spacing will be key. We’ll get a glimmer of a possible series in their final two regular-season games, and I’d keep an eye on how Nakase uses Rupert’s shooting as she was overseas during the first two meetings.
Scary hours: Phoenix Mercury
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The Phoenix Mercury have been a bad matchup for the Valkyries all season long.
In a similar vein to the Aces, the Mercury used Alyssa Thomas as their primary initiator to force Golden State into disadvantageous rotations. Those same off-ball flare screens, which are quietly one of the Valkyries’ lingering defensive issues, Phoenix uses in spades and with some deadly shooters like DeWanna Bonner and Sami Whitcomb.
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And combing through the tape of their past matchups, the Mercury just got way too many open looks from beyond the arc. Part of it was because of how well Thomas leveraged the gravity she drew from being in the high post.
But the other issue was that Golden State was straight-up late on some of their rotations. Off-ball defenders died on the off-ball screens. Phoenix beat the rotations with the ball movement. Glass half-full, that points to areas of improvement, especially since it’s been a while since the two teams played.
But where I also get scared is the depth. Thomas, surrounded by Kahleah Copper, Satou Sabally, Monique Akoa-Makani, and Natasha Mack, may just be the most complete starting five. And that’s before we even get to the bench. They have length, size, speed, spacing, and playmaking across the board.
It kind of makes it harder on the Valkyries’ defense because Golden State is very good at scheming against heliocentric, star-driven offenses. And while Thomas is the head of the snake, the beauty of Phoenix’s offense is in how anyone on the floor can score on a given possession. This is another team that picks apart zone defenses.
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The default Atlanta ‘Dream’ scenario?
David Gonzales-USA TODAY Sports
By no means are the Atlanta Dream an easy matchup. Let’s get that out of the way. Rhyne Howard and Allisha Gray are a killer one-two backcourt. And the size of Brionna Jones and Brittney Griner can wear down opponents all by themselves.
But the Dream might be the Valkyries’ dream matchup because the two teams’ playstyles don’t clash.
The overarching issue the Valkyries have had versus the Lynx, Aces, and Mercury has been pace. Those three teams emphasized pushing the ball and getting into transition so as not to let Golden State set up its defense. It was Wilson and Thomas pushing the ball on rebounds. It was the Lynx forcing turnovers and running. And it sped Golden State up because, contrary to popular belief, the Valkyries have the slowest pace in the WNBA.
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But do you know who’s right next to them at the bottom of the league in pace? Atlanta. Atlanta plays just as slowly as the Valkyries.
That’s the kind of opponent Golden State would want in a playoff matchup. There’s way more variance in faster-paced, higher-scoring games. Against a slow team like the Dream, it’s easier to drag them into the mud. There are fewer possessions. Turnovers matter more. The Valkyries have the rotation to match the Dream’s bigs.
The Valkyries are 4-14 when they allow opponents to score 80 points or more. But when they allow fewer than 70 points, Golden State is a staggering 13-1 on the season. Sure, a portion of that record is blowing teams out. But it’s also a matter of their defense slowing opponents’ offenses to a halt. Of the four potential matchups, I’d say Atlanta would be the easiest offense the Valkyries can force into a slog.
It’s all relative, of course. Atlanta’s still a dangerous opponent. They’ve been shooting at a great clip as of late. Atlanta tied the WNBA record for most threes in a game in their last win. Regardless, we probably won’t know who the Valkyries will play until the final days of the regular season. That may provide uncertainty, but knowing this team, they’ll have a game plan in place in time for Game 1.
Related: Valkyries’ path to clinching spot 2025 WNBA Playoffs
Related: Valkyries’ first home playoff game moved to San Jose because of Laver Cup
