Value is value, no matter where — or how — you find it. And that’s what we’ll aim to do each week in this space — find value.
Ben Solak, Seth Walder and Matt Bowen bring different perspectives into how they approach sports betting. Solak leans on his expertise in player evaluation and the X’s and O’s to find edges, while Walder relies on statistical models to pick out plus-expected value bets. Bowen, a former NFL safety, predicts positive matchups and game winners from tape study and his understanding of the league.
These weekly picks will not be limited to a certain bet type. From spreads and money lines to totals or even defensive player props, a good price might be found anywhere.
Results will be tracked throughout the season, with flat one-unit wagers for each listed bet.
With that, let’s dive in to Week 14.
Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.
Jump to:
Game bets | Defensive props | Offensive props
Game bets
Houston Texans +3.5 (-115) at Kansas City Chiefs
Solak: Boy, do I hate the feeling of fading a Chiefs team with its back against the wall in the AFC playoff race. But here we are. The Chiefs are missing both of their starting tackles against the league’s best pass rush duo in Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter. The Chiefs tend to struggle against man coverage-heavy defenses, which the Texans have the cornerbacks to run. I don’t see a dominant offensive performance out of Kansas City.
On the other side of the ball, the Texans’ offense has found success in the passing game over recent weeks with the emergence of rookie receiver Jayden Higgins. Higgins and Nico Collins bring formidable size to the position, and star CB Trent McDuffie tends to struggle most with bigger receivers who can box him out of the catch point. I like a low-scoring game in this one, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the last drive is the game winner for either side. So long as I’m getting the hook, I’m on the Texans’ side.
Bowen: I’m taking this bet with Houston because of DeMeco Ryans’ defense. This unit can dictate the flow of the game with edge rushers Anderson and Hunter, plus the secondary is one of the league’s best. Coverage ability, range and ball skills. Limit Patrick Mahomes here and set up the Texans’ offense with field position.
Washington Commanders money line (+110) at Minnesota Vikings
Solak: This line has been moving down throughout the week, presumably as the Commanders prepare for another Marcus Mariota start in favor of fielding Jayden Daniels, who is recovering but was a full participant in Thursday’s practice. It’s smart to proceed carefully with the franchise QB’s long-term health. But this bet isn’t about Washington’s quarterback, but rather Minnesota’s. I cannot imagine what the internal spirit of the locker room must be with J.J. McCarthy returning from his second in-season injury to take the helm of the offense again. McCarthy gets a soft Washington defense to face at home, but the Commanders still play impassioned football under Dan Quinn. I’m worried this Vikings team might be dead on their feet.
Washington’s offense is also a unit underappreciated in the market. On the season, it’s 12th in EPA per drive and 13th in points per drive — this with major offensive injury not just at quarterback, but at receiver as well. The game against the Denver Broncos was only the fifth game all season where Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel played together, and WR3 Noah Brown might be back for this game as well. As I wrote a few weeks ago, I’m not sure how many opportunities are left in life to fade McCarthy as a starter. I’m not letting this one pass me by.
0:48
Why Taylor Lewan likes the Bengals to pull an upset against the Bills
Taylor Lewan and Will Compton break down why the Bengals can pull an upset against the Bills.
Cincinnati Bengals +5.5 (+100) at Buffalo Bills
Bowen: The Bills will move the ball against this Bengals defense, especially on the ground with James Cook III. But Cincy can run the ball too with Chase Brown, and I’ll take Joe Burrow, with receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins both up for the game, against a Buffalo secondary that lacks high-end team speed. Cincy covers the 5.5 points in Orchard Park.
Chicago Bears +6.5 (-105) at Green Bay Packers
Bowen: The spread works for the Bears on the road, given the offensive identity under coach Ben Johnson. Control tempo with the run game while setting up Caleb Williams on play-action throws. And a Bears defense that takes the ball away travels well in December, too. Chicago covers at Lambeau.
Atlanta Falcons team total UNDER 17.5 points (-105)
Solak: I wanted to get a feel for Drake London‘s availability for this game before I hit it. With London not practicing Wednesday or Thursday, I’m confident that if he plays, he’ll be fairly limited. Given his value in the red zone, I’m willing to take the under now. The Falcons’ offense under Kirk Cousins is far too limited. The Falcons need to be able to hit explosive plays, as Cousins’ lack of mobility in the pocket makes it nearly impossible to string together long drives. The Seattle Seahawks are the best defense in football at limiting explosive passes and fourth in explosive runs.
Without the hidden yardage of Bijan Robinson‘s tackle-breaking or Kyle Pitts Sr.’s speed after the catch, it’s hard to find big plays (59.2% of Cousins’ passing yardage this year has come after the catch, second only to Aaron Rodgers, and the Seahawks’ defense is fifth best at preventing YAC this year). I prefer taking the under on the Falcons team total given Sam Darnold‘s recent struggles against pressure, which the Falcons’ defense can dial up well. I also have some Seahawks -7 (-105) in pocket, and this line has moved toward Atlanta over the course of the week. I’d be stunned if we get -6.5 (-110) but will hit it again if we do.
Seth Walder’s defensive props
0:56
Cockcroft: Ernest Jones IV is a must-add for fantasy playoffs
Tristan H. Cockcroft advocates for fantasy managers to add Ernest Jones IV for the playoffs.
Broncos D/ST to score anytime TD (+450)
Walder: It would be hard to find a juicier matchup than the dangerous Denver defense against the woebegone Raiders offense. Geno Smith has taken sacks at a 10.6% clip this season (highest among QBR qualifiers), and the Broncos are threatening the single-season team sack record. Each of the many expected sacks in this game offers the possibility of a strip sack (and potential scoop-and-score). And it’s not like Smith has taken care of the ball through the air, either; his 14 interceptions are tied for the league high. I make the fair price here +379.
Offensive player props
1:19
Why Field Yates is starting Joe Burrow against Buffalo in Week 14
Field Yates breaks down his confidence in Joe Burrow against the Bills’ defense in fantasy Week 14.
Burrow UNDER 254.5 passing yards (-112)
Solak: It’s an understandably big number for Burrow, who is fresh off a 261-yard performance against the Baltimore Ravens in a game in which he didn’t need to pick up huge yardage given how many short fields the Ravens afforded the Bengals. Now he gets the Bills defense as a 5.5-point underdog, and he should pass for four quarters. However, the Bills have been an enormous run-funnel defense this year, and the Bengals’ running game has sneakily improved. Defensively, Buffalo is fifth in EPA per dropback and 30th in EPA per designed run, fourth in success rate against passes and 26th in success rate against runs. Its 12.6% explosive run rate surrendered is the worst number among all defenses this season.
Despite the fact that their star quarterback is back, expect the Bengals to lean on the running game fairly heavily. Offenses facing the Bills have a run rate of 8.5% over expectation, and if the weather in Orchard Park matches the current forecast — sub-30 degrees with snow possible — it will be even harder to connect on big passes down the field. I also like the Bills to shorten this game by relying heavily on their dominant rushing attack, minimizing the number of drives Burrow gets on the field. The paths to a huge passing game are just too thin for Burrow in this one.
Baker Mayfield UNDER 30.5 passing attempts (+100)
Solak: Rainy conditions are expected in Tampa Bay this Sunday, which lends itself to more of a run-heavy game plan. Similarly, an 8.5-point spread against a bad New Orleans Saints team lends itself to a quiet second half for Mayfield. The return of RB Bucky Irving and G Ben Bredeson to the starting lineup also contributes a more run-heavy approach, as WRs Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan are not yet back to buttress the passing game. The Saints’ defense under Brandon Staley has the sort of two-high structure and shaky defensive line play that encourages opposing teams to run the football; 47% of called plays against the Saints are runs, second only to the Vikings’ defense. Mayfield has cleared 30 attempts just twice in the past seven games: a fast-paced game against the New England Patriots in which he largely trailed, and a prime-time loss to the Detroit Lions in which he trailed by multiple scores for most of the past three quarters. Those sorts of deficits are unlikely against the Saints. So long as this game follows the expected script, it’s hard to see Mayfield getting up to this number.
Caleb Williams to throw 2+ INTs (+680)
Walder: I price this at +335, so we’ve got a decent edge here on the alternate line and a stronger edge than what I have for Williams’ regular interceptions prop. One factor my model considers is that Williams has thrown four dropped interceptions this season, tied for the league high. Those plays don’t show up in the box score but easily could have been picks, and we would have a different view of Williams’ propensity to throw interceptions had the defenders held on to them. Plus, with the Packers reasonably heavy favorites in this game, the chances are higher that Williams will be forced into desperate passing situations.
Josh Allen 32+ pass attempts (+203)
Walder: The Bengals have the worst pass defense in the NFL in terms of EPA per dropback (0.13), so it would behoove the Bills to lean into the passing game. That’s what other opponents have done against the Bengals, who have the fourth-highest pass rate over expectation against them, per NFL Next Gen Stats. There is certainly some risk the Bills pull away and run the ball to work the clock, but Joe Burrow’s presence helps our cause here. The increased threat of the Bengals offense with the star quarterback back at the helm should keep Buffalo throwing longer. My model likes Allen’s attempts over up and down the board here, but 32+ is where it shows the strongest edge.
Daniel Jones UNDER 31.5 pass attempts (-101)
Bowen: Jones has attempted fewer than 32 passes in three straight games, and I don’t expect the Indianapolis Colts to use a pass-heavy game plan versus the Jacksonville Jaguars. If Indy can stay on schedule, the call sheet leans on Jonathan Taylor and the run game. Taylor has 20 or more carries in two of his past three games.
Patrick Mahomes longest rush OVER 12.5 yards (-115)
Solak: Houston’s defense is one of the most enjoyable units in football. It has powered the Texans back into the AFC playoff hunt, and now Houston gets a Kansas City Chiefs team likely missing both starting tackles, as LT Josh Simmons was placed on IR this week and RT Jawaan Taylor has yet to practice. It’s a dream matchup for Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter. But because their pass rush is so aggressive, they can give up big rushing lanes. Six of the nine quarterbacks who have had a rushing prop against the Texans this year have gone over, often on the back of one big run.
I waffled between Mahomes’ longest rush over 12.5 yards and Mahomes’ total rushing yards over 22.5. I think both are good, and I split my bet over the two. I could see the Texans playing so worried about Mahomes’ ability to escape that they prioritize a safer rush plan, and Mahomes only gets one or two opportunities to break into the open field. As such, I’ll lean to the longest rush at 12.5. In both his games against DeMeco Ryans’ Texans defense, Mahomes’ longest rushes were 15 yards. Taking longest rush insulated us from kneel-downs losing the bet.
1:13
Cockcroft: Chase Brown is a top-10 RB in Week 14
Tristan H. Cockcroft explains his fantasy optimism for Chase Brown vs. the Bills.
Chase Brown OVER 51.5 rushing yards (-110)
Bowen: Brown has topped the 75-yard rushing mark in three straight games, and this offense will be balanced with Joe Burrow under center. That works here against a Bills defense giving up 5.2 yards per carry.
Jaylen Warren to score anytime TD (+175)
Bowen: Warren has rushed for a touchdown in two straight games, both on goal-line carries. When the Pittsburgh Steelers get the ball in the low red zone versus the Ravens, Warren will get his opportunities.
DJ Moore 60+ receiving yards (+505)
Walder: It has been a disappointing season for Moore, who has just 502 receiving yards, 1.4 yards per route run and a 17% target rate. Still, the odds have gotten pessimistic enough on Moore that it’s worth taking a shot here. One reason to hit the alternate line here is that 45% of Moore’s routes are verticals (11th highest among wide receivers with at least 200 routes this season), which means that if Caleb Williams does connect with Moore, it is more likely to be for a chunk gain.
Christian Watson OVER 52.5 receiving yards (-114)
Bowen: Watson’s usage is up (17 targets over his past two games), and he’s producing as a three-level route runner. I like the matchup here versus the Bears secondary, and we know Watson can get down the field to create explosive plays.
1:04
Field Yates: Zay Flowers a top-25 WR vs. Steelers
Field Yates describes how Zay Flowers can be a beneficiary for fantasy against the Steelers in Week 14.
Zay Flowers over 55.5 receiving yards (-113)
Solak: Lamar Jackson‘s missed practice Thursday has caused some movement in this line, as the Ravens are now down to 5.5-point favorites against the Steelers in a game that could decide the AFC North. Should Jackson be unavailable, Tyler Huntley would get the start in Baltimore. With Huntley at QB this season, Flowers had a 30.8% target rate and 2.21 yards per route run. But even going back to previous Huntley games for the Ravens in seasons past, Flowers is clearly a preferred target, posting a 30% target rate and 2.15 yards per route run.
The Steelers’ recent game against the Bills was a brief respite in their struggles against opposing receivers. In Week 11, Rome Odunze (53) and DJ Moore (64) had productive days; in Week 10, Quentin Johnston (42) and Ladd McConkey (107) excelled; in Week 9, Josh Downs (57), Michael Pittman Jr. (115) and Alec Pierce (115) produced. Wide receiver production in Baltimore is fairly siloed on Flowers, as Rashod Bateman and DeAndre Hopkins are not high-volume players. Whether a limited Jackson or Huntley ends up the starter, Flowers should see the volume necessary to get to this number.
Colston Loveland OVER 38.5 receiving yards (-110)
Bowen: Loveland has 40 or more yards receiving in five of his past six games. A big-body target for quarterback Caleb Williams, Loveland can flex from the formation to run seams and in-breakers off play-action. Zone answers here for Ben Johnson’s game plan.
Jayden Higgins OVER 34.5 receiving yards (-110)
Bowen: Higgins has topped 42 yards receiving in three of his past four games. He’s a big-body target who can create separation to the ball, and he’s seeing more volume (7.0 targets per game over his past three). Look for Houston to scheme matchups for Higgins versus K.C. from boundary and slot alignments.
James Cook III 3+ receptions (+168)
Solak: After an odd hiatus from the passing game midseason, Cook is back as a featured part of the Bills’ passing attack. In the four games from Weeks 5 to 9, Cook had one catch on two targets; in the four games since Week 10, he has 14 catches on 14 targets. He had three catches on three targets on just seven routes last week. Ty Johnson is the third-down back and will run more routes than Cook, but the Bengals’ defense encourages early-down RB targets by playing soft zone defense. In fact, 20.3% of early-down targets against the Bengals’ defense this year have gone to RBs, eighth most in football. With the snow expected and the potential for a closer score margin as the Bengals keep it competitive, I’m willing to take this number at such long odds for a half-unit.
