Making tough lineup decisions every week can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process. When you’re torn between two similar players and simply don’t know which one to start, start the player with the superior matchup.
Ah, but exactly how does one determine the best (and worst) weekly matchups?
Our matchup rankings provide a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups each week, ranking all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying upon season totals, we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule it has faced. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
“Adj. FPA,” or adjusted fantasy points allowed, reflects how far above or below players’ weekly PPR fantasy point averages that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it’s unfavorable. Also, remember that teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover a team’s personnel at that position.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want my — and the ESPN fantasy staff’s — most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Matchups highlight: Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (at Dallas Cowboys). In two games since surgery for a broken bone in his left (non-throwing) hand, he has totaled 22.20 fantasy points, but consider the context. Coach Jim Harbaugh has employed a more run-centric offense as a means of protecting his quarterback, his Chargers rushing on 50% of offensive plays after 42% in their first 12 games, and Herbert’s matchups were two of the league’s five toughest, going by Adjusted FPA for the season. While Harbaugh might still take steps to ease Herbert’s burden this week, the quarterback’s matchup couldn’t be much more favorable. The Cowboys have allowed a league-most 6.9 Adjusted FPA for the season, and they’ve seen three straight quarterbacks score 23-plus fantasy points.
Others to like
Matchup to avoid: Dak Prescott, Cowboys (versus Chargers). Across the field, Prescott is one of a handful of quarterbacks who face brutal on-paper matchups in Week 16 (also: Bo Nix vs. JAX; Trevor Lawrence @DEN), but he’s the most accomplished of the bunch. The No. 5 scorer at the position for the season, Prescott has largely gotten there by exploiting his matchups. Against top-eight defenses in Adjusted FPA against quarterbacks for the season, he has averaged 24.6 fantasy points (three games). Against bottom-eight defenses, however, he has averaged 16.1 (six games). The Chargers are the second-toughest positional matchup, whether using full season (minus-3.9) or past five weeks (minus-7.6) Adjusted FPA numbers.
Running backs
Matchups highlight: Quinshon Judkins, Cleveland Browns (versus Buffalo Bills). This one might seem a tough sell, what with Judkins’ Browns heavy underdogs (Bills -10) despite being the hosts, heightening the prospects of his being hurt by negative game script. That said, his 57 touches with his team trailing by at least a touchdown in the second half of games (tied for fourth), on which he has 26% of his fantasy points for the year, offers some hope. Besides, the Bills have had their share of struggles keeping recent opponents in check, surrendering 30-plus points to four of their past six, and their run defense has been awful recently due to injuries to LB Terrel Bernard and DTs Ed Oliver and Jordan Phillips. In three of those six games, a running back exceeded 30 fantasy points against the Bills.
Others to like:
Matchup to avoid: Travis Etienne Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars (at Denver Broncos). Consider this less of a must-sit statement about him specifically than it is illustrating the steep, steep downside the visiting Jaguars have as an offense for their Week 16 matchup. Etienne has benefited from a good amount of work in the red zone during his team’s five-game winning streak, his 22 touches and 40.3 fantasy points in those situations third- and fourth-best among all players during that time. Much of that came during the softest portion of the team’s schedule, however, and this seems more likely to be a defensively oriented affair. Etienne has struggled with his matchups as well, averaging 10.4 fantasy points in his five games against the position’s eight toughest matchups using seasonal Adjusted FPA.
Wide receivers
Matchups highlight: Michael Wilson, Cardinals (versus Falcons). He’s one of the hottest wide receivers in fantasy football, averaging 20.5 fantasy points over the past five weeks, third-most at the position, and 27.2 in the four games missed by Marvin Harrison Jr. (appendicitis, heel). Though Harrison could return for Week 16, Wilson’s matchup props him up as a clear start, as a borderline WR2/3 if both play, and a top-10 option if Harrison is again absent. The opposing Falcons have effectively collapsed in terms of reining in wide receivers, having surrendered seven games of 15-plus fantasy points to the position, and three of 24-plus, in the past five weeks alone. They’ll also be without CB Mike Hughes (ankle) for this game.
Others to like:
Matchup to avoid: Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders (versus Philadelphia Eagles, Saturday). In three games since returning from a quadriceps injury, he has averaged 15.2 fantasy points (16th best at the position) with a 30.0% target share (seventh). Inconsistent quarterback play, however, and the early conclusion to Jayden Daniels‘ (elbow) season cast some doubt on McLaurin’s fantasy utility when facing matchups as tough as this one. In their past seven games, the Eagles have seen only three wide receivers score as many as 10 fantasy points, and George Pickens (29.6, in Week 12) was the only one to exceed the 20 point threshold against them.
Tight ends
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Dopp: Kyle Pitts Sr. is a lineup lock for TE in Week 16
Daniel Dopp discusses why fantasy managers should start Kyle Pitts Sr. with confidence in Week 16.
Matchups highlight: Kyle Pitts Sr., Falcons (at Cardinals). It’s easy to plug him into a fantasy lineup one week after he delivered the fifth-best point total by any tight end in the past 65 years, but the matchup gives him good odds of at least pacing his position in scoring for a second consecutive week. Four different tight ends have scored 12-plus fantasy points against the Cardinals in the past five weeks alone, including less-prominent options like Brenton Strange, Colby Parkinson and Dalton Schultz.
Matchup to avoid: Harold Fannin Jr., Browns (versus Bills). He’s a tough player to bench, after back-to-back weeks of at least 12 fantasy points and double-digit targets, but the matchup does limit his upside for Week 16. Only two tight ends all season have scored more than 7.5 fantasy points in a game against the Bills, with Mark Andrews (1.5 points, in Week 1), Hunter Henry (6.6, Week 5; and 2.8, Week 15), Pitts (4.8, Week 6) and Travis Kelce (12.6, Week 9) among the most prominent names they’ve held in check.
