Week 6 betting: Bengals-Packers points to high scoring, overs on player props

Value is value, no matter where — or how — you find it. And that’s what we’ll aim to do each week in this space — find value.

Ben Solak is out this week, so Matt Bowen is filling in with his own unique style.

Bowen and Seth Walder bring different perspectives to how they approach sports betting. Bowen, a former NFL safety, predicts positive matchups and game winners from tape study and his understanding of the league. Walder relies on statistical models to pick out plus-expected value bets.

These weekly picks will not be limited to a certain bet type. From spreads and money lines to totals or even defensive player props, a good price might be found anywhere.

Results will be tracked throughout the season, with flat one-unit wagers for each listed bet.

With that, let’s dive into Week 6. As always, odds are from ESPN BET Sportsbook.

Note: Defensive prop bets will be added as they become available.

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Game bets | Offensive props

Game bets

Cincinnati Bengals at Green Bay Packers to go OVER 44.5 (-115)

Let’s start with Green Bay’s offense, a unit averaging 26.0 PPG (ninth in the league). There will be opportunities for quarterback Jordan Love to attack a Cincinnati defense allowing 31.2 PPG (30th). Green Bay can score Sunday, and the arrival of quarterback Joe Flacco does sightly raise the floor of the Bengals’ passing game. Flacco will have some negative plays, and his mobility has declined, but he can still rip the ball to all three levels of the field. Take the over at Lambeau. — Bowen

Denver Broncos at New York Jets first half UNDER 21.5 (-115)

I’m not buying these international games. The tempo is sluggish. The play execution is choppy. Through five games, the Jets have failed to establish an offensive identity, while the Denver defense can heat up the pocket. Plus, Broncos quarterback Bo Nix has thrown a total of two first-half touchdown passes over his past three games. It feels like a slow start to this game in London. — Bowen

Two-team, 6-point teaser (-110): San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5), Los Angeles Rams (-1.5) at Baltimore Ravens

Let’s tease the Bucs up to +3.5 for the matchup versus the 49ers. Baker Mayfield is playing at an MVP level, and the Bucs’ zone pressure can limit Mac Jones in critical down-and-distance situations. I feel good with the points. And on the other side, with Lamar Jackson (hamstring) doubtful for a second straight game, we can tease the spread down to -1.5 for the Rams. The injury-filled Baltimore defense has allowed a league-high 35.4 PPG this season, and backup quarterback Cooper Rush threw three interceptions in the Week 5 blowout loss to the Texans. This should be a big day for Matthew Stafford. — Bowen

Offensive player props

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Jordan Love to go OVER 239.5 passing yards (-115)

Against a Bengals defense allowing 259.0 pass yards per game, Packers coach Matt LaFleur can scheme for Love versus both Cover 2 and Cover 3. Create the zone voids. Early-down play-action works, too. And don’t forget about the big-play throws. Love, who has thrown for at least 290 yards in two of four games, hits the over. — Bowen

Dillon Gabriel to go UNDER 32.5 pass attempts (-120)

The Cleveland Browns rank 26th in pass block win rate and are facing a Pittsburgh Steelers defense that ranks second in pass rush win rate. Does that sound like a situation where Cleveland would want its rookie quarterback passing a lot? I don’t think so, either. What my model knows is that the Browns lean run-heavy, with a negative-5% pass rate over expectation this season. What it doesn’t explicitly consider is that last week in Gabriel’s first start, the Browns went more run-heavy, with a negative-10% in that same category. And yet it still believes that the under should be priced at -199 here. — Walder

Bryce Young to go OVER 1.5 TD passes (+105)

Young has thrown multiple touchdown passes in two of his past four games, and he gets a Dallas Cowboys defense this Sunday that has allowed 12 touchdown passes this season (tied for second most). I’d expect an aggressive game plan from Carolina, and Young can extend plays as a thrower in the red zone. — Bowen

Trevor Lawrence to throw UNDER 0.5 interceptions (+115)

Lawrence’s interception rate is up from 2.2% in both 2023 and 2024 (a shade above average) to 2.7% this year. My model considers both, and I think it’s reasonable to assume Lawrence has not suddenly become more pick-prone this year. The fact that the Jacksonville Jaguars are barely underdogs and that they lean just a little toward the run means I would expect this number to be extremely close to 50-50. I’ll admit that the fact my model feels a little stronger about it — it makes the fair price on the under -114 — is a little vexing to me. But I’ll take the plus money and trust it. My pass attempts also leans toward the under on Lawrence, so that gives me a little more confidence, too. — Walder

Christian McCaffrey to go OVER 48.5 receiving yards

McCaffrey hasn’t been very efficient running the ball this season, but he has produced high-end numbers as a receiver. McCaffrey has topped the 80-yard receiving mark in three straight games, plus he will have second-level matchups versus Tampa Bay. — Bowen

Breece Hall to go UNDER 3.5 receptions (-140)

Every week in this space, I’ve written about one of my favorite splits in football: that running backs are almost twice as likely to catch a pass when facing a zone coverage snap than a man coverage snap. And we’ve been having success betting the belief that that split isn’t fully baked into the betting market by hitting overs against the extremely zone-heavy Cowboys. As of this writing, there aren’t any props up for Rico Dowdle or Chuba Hubbard, with the latter’s status for Sunday up in the air, but we can look at the other end of the spectrum, too. That’s where the Broncos lead the league in man coverage rate at 65%. The result? Just 12% of opponent targets are to running backs, the lowest rate in the league. I’m willing to bet that keeps Hall under his total. — Walder

Ja’Marr Chase to go OVER 60.5 receiving yards (-115)

The over seems too low here for Chase after he had 110 yards receiving in the Week 5 loss to the Detroit Lions. With Flacco at quarterback for the Bengals, I would expect more quicks (screens, slants) and boundary fades. Plus, the Bengals will have to throw to stay in this one. — Bowen

Drake London to score Anytime TD (+155)

London has only one touchdown grab on the season, but he has seen at least one end zone target in two of four games played. Look for the Atlanta Falcons to isolate London in the low zone area to gain a man matchup versus the Buffalo Bills. And don’t be surprised if it’s an in-breaking concept. — Bowen

Marvin Mims Jr. to record 50+ receiving yards (+300)

Mims really fits the profile of the receivers that my model likes to target with these props. He’s a deep threat, high-variance player (and we’re leaning into the variance!) who runs go or deep fade routes 21% of the time, the sixth-highest rate among wide receivers with at least 80 routes run. Mims doesn’t play all that much (just 50% of the Broncos’ possible routes), but he’s effective when he does, with 2.1 yards per route run. But I also like the matchup: The Jets rank 31st in EPA allowed per dropback, and both Brandon Stephens and Sauce Gardner have allowed 1.6 yards per coverage snap this season (well above the 1.1 average for outside corners), per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Walder

Tyquan Thornton to go OVER 21.5 receiving yards

Thornton caught three passes for 90 yards in the Week 5 loss to the Jaguars, and he has 40 or more yards in four of five games played this season. With the vertical ability to stretch defenses, Thornton has carved out a defined role in the Kansas City Chiefs‘ passing game. And Patrick Mahomes is getting him the ball. Thornton makes some plays versus Detroit. — Bowen