We’ve reached the heart of the college football season, where the grind starts to separate contenders from pretenders. Depth and quarterback play are becoming deciding factors, and while the oddsmakers’ numbers are sharper than ever, the edges still exist if you know where to look.
This week’s slate offers a mix of value: a quarterback injury market that hasn’t fully corrected, a total built on outdated defensive perception and a tempo mismatch that screams under.
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Let’s dive into three bets worth locking in for Week 7.
Houston Cougars (-15, 46.5) at Oklahoma State Cowboys
The line for this matchup opened Houston -14, reflecting uncertainty around QB Conner Weigman after he exited last week’s game with a concussion. Early in the week, Houston head coach Willie Fritz offered clarity, saying, “We look forward to having him back and playing on Saturday.”
That’s huge news. The downgrade from Weigman to Houston’s backup is steep, and the betting market hasn’t fully adjusted to his expected return. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State is in disarray. The Cowboys are down multiple quarterbacks and are now turning to wide receiver Sam Jackson to start under center. Jackson has prior QB experience — a brief stint as Cal’s starter last season — but was benched for Ben Finley, who’s now starting for Akron.
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With Houston regaining stability at quarterback and Oklahoma State’s roster unraveling, this is a mismatch in both personnel and momentum. Expect the Cougars to roll.
Bet: Houston -15
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Washington Huskies (-10.5, 60.5)
Rutgers’ defense has been one of the worst in the country, ranking 116th in defensive EPA and struggling mightily against teams that commit to the run. That’s bad news against a Washington offense that can attack on the ground and stretch the field vertically with explosive plays.
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The Huskies (4-1) have their sights set on sneaking into the College Football Playoff picture, and they know dominant, high-scoring wins are their only path. Washington ranks 15th nationally in offensive EPA and should dictate tempo against a Rutgers team coming off back-to-back games against slower-paced opponents.
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This sets up perfectly for the Huskies offense to control the game and pile on points, both for margin and for style. Expect fireworks in this one.
Bet: Over 60.5
Air Force Falcons at UNLV Rebels (-6.5, 65.5)
If you’ve followed Air Force football in recent years, seeing a total in the mid-60s might feel like a typo. But the Falcons’ defense has fallen apart, ranking dead last nationally in defensive EPA and 77th in rushing EPA allowed.
However, their offensive efficiency has been a bit misleading. Air Force ranks sixth in points per quality drive, despite rarely sustaining long, methodical series. They’ve capitalized on short fields and defensive breakdowns more than showing true offensive rhythm.
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On the other side, UNLV under Dan Mullen plays at one of the slowest tempos in FBS (111th in seconds per play) and features a defense that can hold its own. The Rebels are 5-0 and quietly building a resume worthy of Top 25 consideration, but this matchup projects as a grind.
Bet: Under 65.5
