Yes, technically, the 2025 college football season began last Saturday with a handful of Week 0 matchups, and there have already been a handful of Week 1 games, but come on, we all know that college football doesn’t really start until the ball is kicked off in Ohio Stadium tomorrow afternoon as the defending national champion and No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes host the No. 1 Texas Longhorns.
So, as we all count down the hours until the game starts, we wanted to take a look at what the robot overlords and Vegas bookmakers think is going to happen in the game.
What are the odds for Ohio State vs. Texas?
As you would expect, the bookies are predicting a pretty close game in Columbus tomorrow. Ohio State currently sits as a 1.5-point favorite, according to the FanDuel Sportsbook. That is down a full point from where it was to start the week. The money line for the Buckeyes is -111, meaning that you will need to bet $111 on Ohio State winning outright to win $100. Texas’ moneyline is -108.
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The over/under is set at 46.5, down a point from where it was 24 hours ago. So, it seems like the bets are moving the lines in Texas’ direction and toward the under. With all of the media attention focused almost uniformly on Texas and Arch Manning, that makes sense. I liked that line and went ahead and jumped on it, because I wouldn’t be surprised if the sharps swung things back the other direction in the hours before kickoff tomorrow morning.
What does the advanced analytics say about Ohio State vs. Texas?
The gold standard college football analytics system SP+, from ESPN’s Bill Connelly, has the Buckeyes as the top team in college football. Now, admittedly, this early in the season, before any games are played, so much of that is built on the successes that OSU had last season as the best defense in college football, and one of the best offenses.
Nonetheless, SP+ projects Ohio State to beat the spread and to win 27-20. It’s interesting that, given all of the personnel changes that both teams have undergone since they last met, Connelly’s metrics still rate the Buckeyes as the No. 7 offense in the country and the No. 2 defense. Conversely, UT is No. 17 on offense — despite the presence of the much-ballyhooed Arch Manning — and No. 1 on defense.
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Clearly, all analytics systems will get better as the season goes on, but I know that I am personally hoping that tomorrow’s game in The Shoe proves just how right SP+ was on this one.
ESPN’s other advanced analytics metric, the Football Power Index (FPI) tells a different story, however. It has Texas as the No. 1 team in the country and gives them an absolutely wild 25.3% to win the national championship. Now look, I know that only a handful of teams actually have a shot to win the title every year, but to say that Texas, the perennially “is back” team, has a one-in-four chance to win the title is completely bonkers. FPI also gives them an 87% chance to make CFP, which I get, because their schedule is relatively easy after Saturday, and they will have all of ESPN’s marketing power behind them as a member of the SEC, but nearly 90%? Come on, guys.
On the other side of the coin, FPI has Ohio State at No. 4 nationally, and only gives them a 9.8% to win the national title. Normally, I would think that’s a pretty healthy number, but when compared to Texas’s nearly 2.5x total, it seems almost insulting. FPI has OSU at 68.9% to make the CFP.
In addition to the worldwide leader’s analytics, I also took the game for a spin through two other well-respected models. The College Football Nerds have the Buckeyes as pretty healthy favorites. Their metrics are projecting a 26.9 to 15.6 OSU victory. However, the NCAA Game Simulator has the game much closer at OSU 22.2, Texas 20.6.
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Finally, I asked everybody’s favorite (least favorite) water-guzzling AI system, ChatGPT, to predict the outcome of the game. The series of 1s and 0s spit out this barburner:
Ohio State, in a one-score rock fight: Buckeyes 24, Longhorns 20.
Why:
– Home edge at noon in the Shoe tilts the coin-flip matchup toward OSU, which is a slight betting favorite (-1.5) with a low total around 47.5—exactly the profile of a defense-driven game where a couple of explosive plays decide it.
– Elite safety play and a seasoned front should cap Texas’ explosives; Ohio State’s defense returns headliners and enters healthier than Texas in a few spots.
– Quarterback floor vs. environment: Arch Manning’s talent is undeniable, but a first start of the season on the road against a top-three defense is a brutal setting; Alabama transfer Julian Sayin gets the friendlier script with Jeremiah Smith as his bailout.
– Market lean is tight but steady toward OSU (hovering around -1.5 to -2.5), reinforcing a narrow Buckeye win expectation.If it swings the other way, it’s because Texas hits 2–3 deep shots off play-action and wins hidden yards on special teams—but on balance, I’ll take Ohio State by four.
There you have it, folks. Not only do the smartest people in sports, the Las Vegas bookmakers, have the Buckeyes favored (albeit by an increasingly narrow margin), but so do four out of five algorithms. If that’s not enough to give you confidence heading into the season opener, I don’t know what is!
