Illinois checks in at No. 6 in KenPom’s 2025-26 Preseason Ratings, something I believe that pleasantly surprised many Illini fans. That is a decent-sized jump from the No. 17 spot awarded to them in the preseason AP Poll.
KenPom is a predictive model that ranks teams based on a set of advanced efficiency metrics. The core of it is Adjusted Efficiency Margin (AdjEM), which measures how much a team would outscore an average Division I opponent. That’s derived from two main stats: Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions) and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions). KenPom also factors in Strength of Schedule, Adjusted Tempo, and even “luck”.
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The traditional AP Poll, on the other hand, is more human. It consists of 60-70 voters who turn in their ballots every week to determine the top 25 teams in the country. I tend to prefer the KenPom rankings during the year vs. the AP poll because they’re rooted in data, not perception. For the AP Poll, when the games begin, nuance goes out the window: you lose, you drop; you win, you rise. Simple, but not always smart. However, the AP is not as egregious when it comes to preseason rankings as biases tend to cancel out across dozens of ballots, giving a rough consensus of the college basketball landscape.
But how much does that actually mean come March? Is a top-10 KenPom preseason ranking really a sign of tournament success, or just another number to obsess over in November? To find out, I looked back at all of the Preseason KenPom Ratings I could find. In the past four seasons, let’s see how those top-10 teams fared when it mattered most and some possible insights into success:
The Preseason Top 10 Usually Predicts Who’ll Be Standing in March
When it comes to forecasting which teams will still be dancing deep into March, KenPom’s preseason top 10 has been a remarkably solid guide, though not flawless. In three of the past four seasons, at least 75% of the Final Four field began the year ranked inside that top 10.
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2024-25: Houston (1), Duke (2), Auburn (3)
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2023-24: Purdue (1), UCONN (4), Alabama (10)
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2021-22: Kansas (3), Villanova (9), Duke (4)
The one true outlier? The 2022–23 season, where chaos reigned. Not a single Final Four team cracked the preseason top 10 that year, and only one (San Diego State, ranked No. 19) even landed in the top 25. The national champion that year, UConn, started the season at No. 27 in KenPom’s preseason ratings.
Even with that anomaly, the predictive power of the top 10 is undeniable. Year after year, it identifies the sport’s inner circle of contenders. But there’s always room for outliers. Two of the last four national champions, UConn (No. 27 in 2022-23) and Florida (No. 28 in 2024-25), came from outside the top 20, proving that March still has a way of humbling every algorithm. And then there’s North Carolina (No. 40 in 2021-22), which turned a mediocre preseason projection into a trip to the national title game. The top 10 sets the stage, but it never tells the full story.
How Far Does a Preseason Top 10 Team Usually Go?
While a top-10 preseason ranking doesn’t guarantee a banner, it does usually mean you’ll still be relevant when the brackets shrink. Looking across the past four seasons, 60% of preseason top-10 teams have reached at least the Sweet 16. A consistent marker of national competitiveness.
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The pattern suggests that preseason KenPom efficiency is a solid barometer for a team’s floor, not its ceiling. If you’re in the top 10 to start the year, odds are you’ll be playing meaningful games in late March. Just don’t assume you’re cutting nets. History says you’ll probably need the analytics and a bit of luck to get there.
What It Means for Illinois
So, what does all this mean for Illinois, sitting at No. 6 in the 2025–26 KenPom preseason rankings? Statistically speaking, that puts the Illini in elite company. Squarely in the range where most teams end up making at least the Sweet 16 and often further. But history reminds us that ranking alone doesn’t promise a deep run. The Illini were No. 5 in 2021-22 and bowed out in the Round of 32 to Houston. Meanwhile, their best postseason showing of this stretch — an Elite Eight run in 2023-24 came after starting the year No. 19 in KenPom’s model.
In short, KenPom says Illinois has the profile of a legitimate contender this year. Ranked No. 6 to open the season, the Illini find themselves in the mix with college basketball’s heavyweights. The numbers say Illinois belongs in the national conversation, but as recent seasons have shown, it’s the execution and identity that ultimately determine who’s still dancing when April rolls around.
