What is Louisville basketball’s ceiling in Year 2 under Pat Kelsey?

Louisville basketball took some lumps in January. Now, Pat Kelsey‘s team is reaping the rewards.

“We’re starting to click,” Mikel Brown Jr. said after tying the program’s single-game records for scoring (45 points) and made 3-pointers (10) during the No. 23 Cardinals’ 118-77 win over N.C. State on Monday at the KFC Yum! Center. “Those ups and downs, we really came together as a squad.”

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Winners of four in a row, UofL enters the final seven games of the regular season at 18-6 overall and 8-4 in the ACC. Are you dreaming big again?

This edition of The Courier Journal’s Louisville basketball mailbag begins with a reassessment of the Cards’ ceiling after Brown’s showstopping performance sparked Monday’s historic victory. From there, we dive into their tendency to start slow before reflecting on just how much the ACC has improved as a whole in 2025-26.

What’s your updated opinion on Louisville basketball’s ceiling with everyone healthy? How much did Mikel Brown Jr. going Steph Curry mode adjust that ceiling? — Chucky Ball Game

My opinion on Louisville’s ceiling hasn’t changed all that much. For context:

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So, why not stay consistent? If everyone stays healthy, I think Louisville’s ceiling is reaching the Final Four for the first time since winning a national championship in 2013. Would I send the Cards to Indianapolis if I had to fill out a bracket today? No, because they’ve suffered more lopsided losses than they’ve played complete games against the team’s I’d consider second-weekend contenders on their schedule to this point.

Brown’s historic performance vs. N.C. State certainly inspires more confidence in UofL being able to flip the script against top-of-the-line competition down the stretch and during the postseason. The team is 14-2 when the projected NBA lottery pick plays, and he was shooting 26.9% (28 for 104) from beyond the arc before erupting for 10 triples on 16 attempts against the Wolfpack. That’s not going to happen every game, of course, but Kelsey said after the win it was only a matter of time before Brown’s shot came around. If it’s here to stay, and he pairs it with consistent facilitating and defending, watch out.

That’s the kind of star power that can elevate a promising season into something special.

Slow starts have plagued Louisville. As we saw vs. N.C. State, when it jumps on a team quickly, it can become dominant. How does it keep that momentum going and get off to faster starts during this final stretch? — Daniel Russell

Let’s look at the numbers behind this trend first:

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• Between Louisville’s Jan. 24 win over Virginia Tech and its Feb. 4 victory over Notre Dame, four opponents combined to outscore the Cards by 25 points (45-20) during the opening five minutes.

• When you throw UofL’s wins at Wake Forest and against N.C. State into the mix, the margin shrinks to -15 (57-42) across six games.

What gives?

Kelsey hasn’t been too concerned about the slow starts. After the win over the Fighting Irish, who opened on a 10-2 run, the coach said his team had a “phenomenal” warmup. And when asked if he’d consider changing his starting lineup, he said, “I’m not going to; but (I) could. It was a good suggestion, though.”

“Teams were throwing the ball in,” Kelsey said after Louisville beat the Wolfpack. “We’re getting wide-open shots, and they’re not going in. Just relax. Just freaking relax.”

To his point: KenPom.com tracks scoring by 10-minute quarters. In the Cards’ past six games, opponents have combined to outscore them by only three points (105-102) during the first 10 minutes. Across UofL’s 7-4 start to the 2026 portion of its schedule, it’s +14 (203-189) in first quarters.

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So, how can Louisville put together more starts like the one against N.C. State? With defense and rebounding.

The Wolfpack missed seven of its first nine shots Monday and didn’t get an offensive rebound until only 3:29 remained in the half. And by that point, Will Wade’s team had already suffered two stretches with five or more consecutive misses. Those one-and-done trips did — and will continue to do — wonders for the Cards’ transition game. They must stack stops and limit second-chance opportunities against even the most formidable opponents on the glass.

How much has ACC basketball improved year-over-year after Louisville went 18-2 last season and got a No. 8 seed in the NCAA Tournament? — Daniel Bird

It’s a night-and-day difference, really.

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Remember: Half of the ACC’s 18 members finished last season ranked outside of the top 100 in the NET, and Louisville was one of only three inside the top 30. As of Wednesday, the conference had 15 teams in the top 100, 13 in the top 75 and six in the top 30. For my money, it’s been one of the most fun leagues to watch in 2025-26.

BartTorvik.com as of Wednesday projected eight ACC members in the NCAA Tournament field — doubling the amount of participants the conference had last season. And five of those teams, the Cards included, were slated to be a No. 6 seed or higher.

UofL played only four Quad 1 regular-season ACC games during Year 1 of the Kelsey era — none after Jan. 21, 2025. This season, it’s on track to play 11. Suffice to say, if it keeps this winning streak going and makes a deep run in the conference tournament, it should be rewarded on Selection Sunday.

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Reach Louisville men’s basketball reporter Brooks Holton at bholton@gannett.com and follow him on X at @brooksHolton.

This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Louisville basketball NCAA Tournament prediction for Pat Kelsey Year 2