The Red Sox have a problem.
It’s not necessarily a bad thing. In fact, in some ways, it’s a good problem to have. Boston has too many capable outfielders, sparking speculation this offseason that one of them would be moved, perhaps in order to bring in what they do need: an infielder, preferably a solid defensive second baseman.
With Duran, Anthony (who was ranked the No. 2 left fielder in the game), Rafaela and Abreu, Boston has an embarassment of riches in the outfield, but with Spring Training just a couple of weeks away, it increasingly looks as though the Red Sox will go with what they’ve got.
And given how Duran enjoyed a breakout campaign in 2024, and then took a bit of a step back last year, it’s worth exploring what the 29-year-old speedster could do for Boston in 2026. After all, he is just one year removed from leading the Majors in doubles and triples while earning his first career All-Star selection — he even took home All-Star Game MVP honors that summer.
Here’s a look at what we can expect to see from Duran, who could be a valuable contributor as the Red Sox look to win their first World Series in eight years, or, on the other hand, a valuable trade chip come midsummer.
Durran took a step back offensively in 2025, though his numbers were still above average. He hit .256/.332/.442 (114 OPS+) to go along with 16 home runs and an American League-best 13 triples (more than the rest of the Red Sox combined).
The story of Duran’s 2025 performance at the plate was, in a nutshell: better contact, but less of it.
He actually hit the ball hard more often when putting the ball in play than he did during his big 2024 campaign — his hard-hit rate last year was 46.8% (71st percentile among qualified batters, according to Statcast), whereas it was 43.9% in ’24. Duran also barreled the ball slightly more often (9.7% last year vs. 9.3% the prior season).
Duran’s 6-degree average attack angle to the baseball entered the ideal range (5 to 20 degrees) after being just outside of it in 2024 (4 degrees). And his average bat speed also increased, from 73.6 mph to 74.8 mph.
The trouble was, he was not swinging as often at pitches over the heart of the plate (68% last season compared to 73% in 2024), while his chase rate increased by 3% year over year. While he chased outside the zone more often last season, his contact rate on those swings dropped from 52.9% to 45.5%.
Duran’s walk rate was up from 7.3% to 8.6%, but he also swung at fewer pitches in the strike zone (his in-zone swing rate declined from 68.2% to 64.1%) and, in particular, pitches down the middle (his “meatball” swing rate declined from 78.5% to 68.7%). In 2024, he produced a +22 run value on pitches over the heart of the plate — that figure was +4 last year.
The 2026 season will be a telling one for Duran. He didn’t have a bad year in ’25 — he was still very productive even though the production wasn’t as prodigious as the prior season. But while one year is a relatively small sample, what you don’t want to see is a trend forming.
If Duran can cut down on the chase rate and return to a more aggressive approach in the strike zone, we might see him recapture his form from two years ago, or perhaps be even better.
Speaking of aggression, Duran made fewer steal attempts last season as compared with 2024. He still stole 24 bases in 30 tries, but he was 34-for-41 in ’24.
With his tremendous speed (his 29.1 feet/second sprint speed ranks in the 91st percentile), Duran’s baserunning value is among the best in the game (+7 run value in 2025, 98th percentile).
Will we see Duran run more in 2026? It remains to be seen, but he seems like a 30-homer/30-steal player waiting to happen.
Duran graded out as a strong defensive left fielder in 2024, finishing that season with +3 outs above average and +6 defensive runs saved. Last season, while his range didn’t pan out as well (-5 OAA), his DRS improved (+11, third among MLB left fielders).
Duran also has well-above-average arm strength, with an average of 87.4 mph, which ranks in the top 30% among qualified outfielders. And his arm value, measuring his ability to prevent runners from taking an extra base, was +4, which was in the 93rd percentile.
This year, with Anthony making a successful big league debut last season, he and Duran will likely split time in left field and at designated hitter, meaning Duran might not be in the field as much as in previous years.
But so far in his career, Duran has proven to be an above-average defensive left fielder with great speed — a great asset at that position. Given his track record and durability, there’s no reason to think we won’t see that again in 2026.
He’s still in Beantown, and that could be a very good thing
It’s still uncertain whether Duran will be donning a Red Sox uniform on Opening Day, but as the clock continues to tick toward the beginning of the regular season, the chances are increasing that he’ll be in Boston’s starting lineup on March 26 in Cincinnati.
Yes, the Red Sox could use an infield upgrade, particularly at second base. But as long as they have four excellent outfielders on the roster, they might as well enjoy the fruits of the logjam.
