Where will Framber Valdez finally sign? Putting all 30 teams into tiers, from no chance to the favorites

Pitchers and catchers are due at spring training in less than two weeks, yet several of the top free-agent arms still don’t know which complex in Arizona or Florida they’ll be reporting to. Eight of the 18 starting pitchers on our Top 50 free agents list remain unsigned with February fast approaching. Chief among them is No. 8 overall and our top hurler in the class, left-hander Framber Valdez.

Over the past four seasons, Valdez ranks second in MLB in innings, behind only Logan Webb, and fifth in fWAR behind Zack Wheeler, Webb, Tarik Skubal and Kevin Gausman. Among 59 pitchers with at least 500 innings pitched during that span, Valdez’s 3.22 ERA ranks seventh, and his 3.29 FIP is ninth. His terrific sinker and top-notch curveball have consistently combined for elite groundball rates, which are clearly his headlining trait as a pitcher, rather than strikeout totals or pinpoint command.

All of this has made Valdez a rotation staple for the Houston Astros during the back half of their dynastic run atop the American League, which has afforded him ample opportunities to pitch in October. He ranks sixth among active pitchers in postseason innings (85.0) and has delivered several stellar high-stakes starts along the way, including an eight-inning effort in the 2021 ALCS and two terrific outings in the 2022 World Series. His more recent showings in 2023 and 2024 weren’t quite as effective, but Valdez is unquestionably battle-tested, and that experience should appeal to teams.

So what’s the hold up? Why would a pitcher of this caliber linger on the market this long? For starters, the number of teams willing to dole out a nine-figure deal was limited from the get-go. If Valdez and his representation are targeting a contract somewhere between what the two other top arms received (5 years, $130M for Ranger Suarez; 7 years, $210M for Dylan Cease), a wholly reasonable ask considering his track record, that immediately shrinks the pool of possible landing spots to almost exclusively big-market clubs.

Age is also paramount in free agency, and Valdez, who turned 32 in November, is two years older than Cease and Suarez. Teams might question how much longer Valdez will be in his prime, particularly with him coming off his worst season as a full-time rotation member. His 2025 wasn’t a bad campaign by any stretch, but unlike in each of the previous three seasons, Valdez didn’t receive any down-ballot Cy Young votes. He also finished poorly, posting a 5.20 ERA in the second half as Houston missed the postseason for the first time since 2016.

There’s also speculation that the cross-up incident in September involving his catcher, Cesar Salazar, has made some teams wary of Valdez’s character. Whether that’s a driving factor behind the hesitance to sign him is unknown, but it’s worth noting that Valdez and his agency made it a priority early in free agency to communicate to clubs about the pitcher’s makeup, crafting a video that helps tell his story and highlights his reputation as a positive presence off the field, beyond what he brings on the mound.

Whatever the exact confluence of reasons that brought us to this point, it’s hard to imagine Valdez will remain unsigned for much longer. So let’s survey the entire league and contemplate possible fits for the left-hander, organized into tiers from least to most likely landing spots.

Not happening

Teams: Brewers, Reds, Rockies, Twins, Cardinals, Pirates, Nationals, Athletics, Guardians, Rays, White Sox, Marlins

Here we have a wide-ranging tier including contending teams, rebuilding teams, ascendent teams and tough-to-decipher teams. Some of these clubs could argue against signing Valdez based on the pitching personnel already in place or more urgent needs elsewhere on the roster.

More pertinently, this cohort shares the most relevant trait in any free-agency exercise: They represent the current dozen lowest payrolls in MLB, a natural distinction for determining which clubs are exceedingly unlikely to splurge on a premium free agent such as Valdez, especially one with a qualifying offer attached (beyond the financial considerations, small-market clubs are often particularly reluctant to forfeit draft picks). Even as we try to expand our horizons to consider potential sleepers for Valdez, any of these teams emerging to sign the southpaw would be downright stunning.

No room, sorry

Red Sox, Dodgers, Mariners, Blue Jays

These four contenders with payrolls ranging from medium (Seattle) to high (Boston, Toronto) to astronomical (Los Angeles) are already loaded with rotation options that make signing Valdez illogical.

Decent fits but probably won’t pay up

Tigers

Maybe Detroit wins its arbitration hearing against Tarik Skubal and then, with added payroll clarity and flexibility, directs some funds to adding a formidable co-ace alongside Skubal (and perhaps a long-term replacement in the event Skubal departs next winter). That would be cool! But don’t count on it.

Royals

Kansas City’s rotation is already quite left-handed, but a trade of Kris Bubic for an offensive upgrade followed by a surprise signing of Valdez could transform the Royals into AL Central favorites. It’s an unlikely sequence but a fun scenario to ponder.

Angels

If owner Arte Moreno wakes up tomorrow and decides he wants to sign a top free agent, as he has on several occasions throughout his tenure, Valdez could be an Angel. But nothing about the team’s offseason activity thus far suggests that is remotely likely.

Rangers

Texas’ trade for MacKenzie Gore indicates a preference to spend prospect capital rather than real dollars to add to its rotation. But if the Rangers were to shed their recently thrifty tendencies and pounce, Valdez could boost their rotation from strong to elite.

Padres

Valdez would be an awesome addition to a Padres rotation that is perilously thin even after they retained Michael King, but all indications are San Diego is still operating with significant budget limitations.

Diamondbacks

The Snakes could definitely use rotation help, but as long as Zac Gallen also remains unsigned, Arizona bringing him back on a new deal feels more likely than the team forfeiting a draft pick and paying way more for a fresher face.

Probably won’t happen, but they have the money (and maybe the need)

Cubs, Yankees, Phillies

There is an intriguing commonality among these three clubs: All three have frontline starters coming back from injury who likely won’t be ready to begin the season (Justin Steele in Chicago, Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón in New York, Zack Wheeler in Philadelphia). The Cubs (Edward Cabrera) and Yankees (Ryan Weathers) have already made trades to fortify their starting staffs to a degree, while Philadelphia appears content to hold down the fort with its internal options until Wheeler is back.

Is there still room — and time — for one of these big-market clubs to flex its financial muscles and add an impact starter anyway? Maybe!

Probably won’t happen, but they did just employ him for a decade

Astros

It’s natural to circle back to the incumbent club when free agencies drag on, but at no point this offseason did it seem realistic that Valdez would stay in Houston, and the Astros have added several other arms (Tatsuya Imai, Mike Burrows, Ryan Weiss, Nate Pearson) in an effort to restock their rotation. A reunion here would be pretty shocking.

The legitimate contenders

Mets

The recent acquisition of Freddy Peralta might’ve changed the calculus for New York in a possible pursuit of Valdez, as the need for a frontline starter is certainly lessened now. And you could also look at the current depth chart, which features a glut of rotation candidates, and argue that another major addition to the unit isn’t necessary. At the same time, Valdez would represent a sensible and exciting finish to New York’s dramatic offseason roster overhaul.

For all the buzz about Peralta and star rookie righty Nolan McLean, major questions persist about every other rotation candidate based on last season’s showings — and acting like McLean is a sure bet based on his limited sample might be risky. As one of the few teams with the kind of spending power to add impact talent regardless of an imperfect roster fit, the Mets shouldn’t be content with their current mound options, especially in the ultra-competitive NL East. David Stearns is reportedly reluctant to give out a long-term deal to any pitcher, but maybe owner Steve Cohen can enable a shorter-term, high-AAV offer to entice Valdez to come to Queens.

Braves

Atlanta has quietly spent a healthy chunk of change this offseason as it looks to bounce back from a miserable 2025, committing more than $100 million to seven free agents to help bolster the bullpen and lineup. The rotation, meanwhile, remains untouched.

The Braves’ top four arms — Chris Sale, Spencer Schwellenbach, Spencer Strider and Reynaldo Lopez — are all wildly talented, but all have missed significant time due to injury in recent seasons. Adding Valdez, a workhorse who offers frontline upside, would be an excellent way to add some certainty to this fragile unit and is the kind of aggressive move that might be necessary if the Braves want to jump back into the NL East melee with the Phillies and Mets.

Giants

The Giants continue to communicate that they are content with their rotation after the modest additions of Tyler Mahle and Adrian Houser, but the longer this drags on, the more San Francisco looks like the team that could benefit the most from finally opening up the wallet and adding a game-changer on the mound. The Giants’ starting staff currently ranks 22nd in projected fWAR, per FanGraphs’ Depth Charts. Adding Valdez — projected to be a top-15 MLB starter — could single-handedly vault them into the top half of rotations league-wide and significantly strengthen their case as a 2026 playoff team.

Pairing Valdez with ace Logan Webb would also give them arguably the two best groundball pitchers in the sport, a duo that could thrive with terrific infielders Matt Chapman and Willy Adames playing behind them. The Cubs and Red Sox eventually quieted their critics by acting like the big-market clubs they are and making splashes in free agency, and there’s still time for the Giants to do the same. And unlike Chicago and Boston, who are coming off postseason appearances, San Francisco should have even more urgency to do so, considering its complete lack of relevance in the NL playoff picture since its outlier 107-win campaign in 2021.

The consensus favorites

Orioles

This team has been the most obvious Valdez match for months. President of baseball operations Mike Elias has plenty of familiarity with Valdez, having been in Houston’s front office during his rise to the majors, and now Elias is heading an Orioles club that hasn’t been shy about its intentions to bolster its rotation this winter.

Trading for Shane Baz was an important step in that direction, but that move didn’t satisfy Baltimore’s need to acquire a pitcher it could feel confident giving the ball for a postseason start — and adding Valdez would. To be clear, this Orioles offseason should be considered a success even without Valdez, but adding the left-hander would emphatically punctuate a winter spent strengthening virtually every portion of the roster.

Until Valdez signs elsewhere, this is the match we’ll be waiting to see come to fruition.

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