Which drivers will fall in Round of 12 for NASCAR Cup playoffs

The second round of the 2025 NASCAR Cup playoffs takes the top level of the sport through New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Kansas Speedway, and will end with an elimination race at the Charlotte Roval.

Alex Bowman, Shane van Gisbergen, Austin Dillon, and Josh Berry have failed to advance, and while Motorsport.com failed to get 100% in our first-round exit predictions, that won’t stop us from giving it our best go for the Round of 12.

Senior NASCAR editor Matt Weaver got 50% correct as he predicted Berry and Dillon’s early eliminations, but both Ross Chastain and Austin Cindric did manage to move on. Longtime news manager Nick DeGroot also got 50%, correctly picking Berry and Dillon, but incorrectly naming Tyler Reddick and Cindric.

The No. 2 Penske driver proved both of us wrong, moving on even after his Ford Mustang went up in flames in the closing laps of the Bristol cutoff race.

Matt Weaver’s Round of 12 eliminations

Chase Elliott: This is the round where there is always one real surprise elimination. But the thing is, by Elliott’s own summation, this isn’t a championship caliber program right now. That doesn’t mean they can’t turn it on. In fact, it’s just as likely they win the championship as it is they get eliminated. New Hampshire is going to be really important for the Hendrick Motorsports No. 9 team because they contended for the win at flat track Gateway, but that is also a different rules package so it’s an open question which Elliott shows up.

Austin Cindric: There isn’t anything particularly wrong with how the Penske No. 2 team is performing right now but this is the round where getting stage points every time and every race, while also challenging for top-5s is key when you start below the cutline. The season-long body of work just isn’t there right now to suggest they are, but Cindric is also a Penske car — surviving this round may be a long shot.

Ross Chastain, Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet

Photo by: Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images

Ross Chastain: Similar to Cindric, the season long body of work isn’t there, but you also kind of expect a win out of nowhere in the playoffs every year. It would be fortuitous for the Trackhouse Racing No. 1 team if it comes while they are still championship eligible. This is a team has found enough to advance to the final four before, so you never discount experience, but this is just the knife to a gunfight stage of the playoffs.

Tyler Reddick: The Southern 500 was a much-needed boost for the 23XI Racing No. 45 team but they’re still not performing at their 2024 levels and they are starting this round at the very bottom of the pylon. On one hand, Toyota is showing the most speed right now but on the other hand, Reddick and Billy Scott just aren’t capitalizing on it regularly. Their first round performance won’t be enough this time around.

Nick DeGroot’s Round of 12 eliminations

Tyler Reddick, 23XI Racing Toyota

Photo by: Sean Gardner / Getty Images

Tyler Reddick: Reddick is a strange case. He won the regular season title in 2024, and made it all the way to the Championship 4, but he is now the only winless driver left in the 2025 title fight. Outside of a stellar showing in the Southern 500, the No. 45 has been far off from where he was just one year ago. If not for that showing at Darlington, the Round of 16 could have been the end of his playoff run. While his teammate continues to impress, Reddick hasn’t shown us much in terms of speed.

Austin Cindric: Most believed Cindric would be a first-round exit, so it already feels like he is on borrowed time here. If he can prove us wrong yet again and move on into the Round of 8, that would be incredible, but the facts just don’t support it happening. He has five top tens this year, and an average finish of 20th just isn’t going to cut it in this round. 

Joey Logano, Team Penske Ford

Photo by: Jonathan Bachman – Getty Images

Joey Logano: It’s not an even-numbered year, so Logano simply can’t win the title if you believe in pop culture numerology. But in all seriousness, this will be a difficult round for the three-time champion. Logano is not a great road course racer, so the Roval will be a challenge. In fact, he was eliminated in this round one year ago — before a post-race disqualification resurrected his title run. Logano is very good at getting a lot out of his equipment and he should be decent enough at NHMS and Kansas, but he starts out below the cutline. Logano will have to gain ground on some very fast cars just ahead of him, and while I don’t expect him to go down without a fight, this will likely be it for the No. 22 this year.

Kyle Larson: Now, this would be a shocker, but Hendrick Motorsports just haven’t been themselves so far in the playoffs. They already lost Alex Bowman, and I believe they will lose another driver in this round. He has a 24-point buffer to play with, but Larson finished 19th, 12th, and 32nd in the first round, and he hasn’t won a race since May. As we saw at Bristol, Larson has also been making some unforced errors in recent months, and another wreck could easily end his playoffs.

Who will barely advance?

Matt says Joey Logano: This is just what he does. Sure, this is an odd-numbered season so his final four years only come on even-numbered campaigns but that’s not legitimate statistical analysis. Until Logano and crew chief Paul Wolfe find race winning speed again, which could be any week now because there is a body of work to suggest they will, Logano will do what is asked of him to keep the war going even at the expense of a weekly battle. It might be down to a couple of points at the Roval but the Penske 22 will continue to draw the ire of fans who will once again decry his lack of championship caliber statistics.

Nick says Ross Chastain: All of the facts point to the Round of 12 being the end of Chastain’s playoff journey, but the one thing stopping me from picking him is the tracks that make up this round. He won at Kansas one year ago, and those types of 1.5-mile tracks are where Chastain shines. There’s also a road course in this round, and his teammate is none other than Shane van Gisbergen. That’s going to be invaluable, but Chastain himself has qualified inside the top five for three of the last four road courses, which could set him up well to score a lot of stage points at the Roval. His weakest track will be NHMS, and yet, he scored a top ten there last year — and let’s not forget, Chastain is one of just three drivers who got to take part in this summer’s tire test at the Magic Mile.