With a first-round bye going into the College Football Playoff, this is kind of uncharted territory for the Buckeyes. Even though it’s just the second season of the 12-team Playoff, this will be the first time Ohio State doesn’t know who its playing its first Playoff game.
Okay, it’s not like we don’t know who the Buckeyes will be playing. We know it will be one of Miami (FL) or Texas A&M. Those two teams play Saturday afternoon in the First Round.
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Who do you want the Buckeyes to play in the Quarterfinals?
Do you want them to play the Hurricanes, the program Ohio State beat in the 2002 Tostitos Fiesta Bowl to win the national championship? Or do you want them to play the Aggies, knowing that many Aggies fans would show up at AT&T Stadium for the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic?
Regardless of who the Buckeyes play, they should win. They are more talented than both the Hurricanes and the Aggies.
Yes, Texas A&M would have home-field advantage playing in its home state, but Ohio State beat Texas last year in the Cotton Bowl, in a game where there were a lot of Longhorns fans in attendance.
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Texas A&M is a really good team, but Ohio State will be the best team they have played all season, by far. The Aggies’ toughest non-conference game was at Notre Dame, a game they won 41-40.
In SEC play, their toughest games were against Missouri and Texas. They went to Missouri and won 38-17, but they lost at Texas 27-17. Not to mention, they pulled out close wins at home against Auburn and South Carolina, and they also held off Arkansas on the road 45-42.
So, the Aggies are 11-1. But how good are they really? They’re good, yes. But they are flawed, as evidenced by their close calls against teams they should have blown out.
There are two stats on the Aggies that I think Ohio State could expose. First, the Aggies are allowing opponents to convert 30 of 32 red-zone trips, with 19 resulting in touchdowns. Second, the Aggies are allowing 21.9 points per game. The Buckeyes’ offense can easily expose those stats.
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Now, there are two things that concern me about facing the Aggies.
Their defense is allowing opponents to convert just 23% of their third downs. In addition, they have two wide receivers who can take the top off opposing defenses. KC Concepcion and Mario Craver are both averaging over 15 yards per reception.
Ohio State would need to be efficient on third down and limit the explosiveness of the Aggies’ wide receivers.
Looking at Miami (FL), they’re actually entering the Playoff with momentum. The Hurricanes have won four in a row, all by double digits. Their most recent win was a 38-17 win at Pittsburgh.
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But before that, the Hurricanes had mid-season slip-ups. They barely beat Florida State, lost at home to Louisville, and lost at SMU in overtime. Miami also struggled against lowly Florida at home.
Still, the Hurricanes have had an outstanding season. They beat Notre Dame in Week 1, setting the tone that this team could get to the Playoff.
Their defense is fantastic, and their offense is explosive. Carson Beck, when on, is a really good quarterback. Malachi Toney is an explosive wide receiver. Miami’s defense would give me the most concern because they can match Ohio State’s physicality up front. They can stop the run, and they’re also good against the pass.
Based on all of this, I’m leaning towards the Aggies as to who I would want Ohio State to play in the Quarterfinals. They have more flaws that the Buckeyes can expose. I also think the Buckeyes are a much better team than the Aggies, and there’s nobody the Aggies have played that comes close to the caliber of opponent Ohio State will be.
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It doesn’t matter that the Aggies will have a home-field advantage element. Ohio State won’t be fazed by that. Expect a more focused Buckeyes team to show up on New Year’s Eve night.
If it’s the Aggies they’re facing in the Cotton Bowl, the Buckeyes could be in for another dominant performance.
