The Round of 16 will come to an end after 500 high-intensity laps of racing at Bristol Motor Speedway. Two drivers are locked in, several others can breathe easy, but there is another group who will find sleep difficult in the coming days.
No one wants to be the first to fall in the playoffs, but we’ve seen everyone from rookies to Cup champions be eliminated after Bristol in the past. Looking at the updated standings after Gateway, who is safe and who is real peril this year?
LOCKED IN — Briscoe and Hamlin
Denny Hamlin, Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota
Photo by: Chris Graythen – Getty Images
The Joe Gibbs Racing duo of Chase Briscoe and Denny Hamlin have both punched their tickets for the Round of 12 after victories at Darlington and Gateway. They have nothing to fear at Bristol, and will carry some extra bonus points with them into the round of 12. This will allow Hamlin to focus on that 60th win he’s been hunting without worrying about his playoff position.
One foot in the door — Larson and Wallace
Bubba Wallace, 23XI Racing Toyota
Photo by: Sean Gardner / Getty Images
Both Kyle Larson (+60) and Bubba Wallace (+50) are likely to clinch a spot in the Round of 12 before the end of Stage 2 at Bristol. The only thing that is currently preventing Larson from being locked in is the fact that a new winner would put him 49 points above the cutline, which he could mathematically (but not realistically) give up at Bristol.
Feeling relatively safe — Blaney, Byron, Reddick, Bell, Elliott
Ryan Blaney, Team Penske Ford
Photo by: Sean Gardner / Getty Images
While these drivers are anywhere from +42 for Ryan Blaney to +28 for Chase Elliott, they should all feel pretty good about their situation. Again, a new winner would bring any of them 11 points closer to the bubble, but it’s still a decent position for them all. Along with their points cushion, they also have multiple drivers between themselves and the cutline, which is key. These are all very capable teams/drivers, so there’s no reason to expect them to give up that many points without being hit with some catastrophic misfortune.
No room for error — Logano and Chastain
Ross Chastain, Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet
Photo by: Sean Gardner / Getty Images
Joey Logano and Ross Chastain finished 1-2 in the championship back in 2022, so they know how to make it through these rounds. However, at +21 for Logano in 10th and +19 for Chastain in 11th, they can’t have any mistakes at Bristol. Chastain has never been eliminated in the first round before, but Logano has. He was +12 in 2023, but that double-digit margin evaporated after he got swept up in someone else’s wreck. That’s how fast things can go wrong at the Bristol half-mile. And should there be a new winner, then either of these drivers could suddenly be on the bubble and face a truly uncomfortable situation.
On the hot seat — Cindric
Austin Cindric, Team Penske Ford
Photo by: Sean Gardner / Getty Images
No one wants to be Austin Cindric at Bristol. He is the driver holding the 12th and final transfer spot, with just 11 points between himself and Austin Dillon. The good news is that he has a few points to play with thanks to that 11-point buffer, but it’s not a lot. And if Dillon or any of the four drivers below the cutline win, then it is game over for Cindric if he doesn’t get off the hot seat. The closest driver above him is Chastain, eight points away. He is going to have to race for stage points, and essentially mirror whatever Dillon does to ensure that he can’t gain any ground. It’s not a fun way to race, but it’s going to be necessary.
Chasing points — Dillon, SVG
Shane van Gisbergen, Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet
Photo by: Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images
As Cindric tries to defend himself, the drivers within striking distance on points are the aforementioned driver of the No. 3 (Dillon), but also Shane van Gisbergen. Dillon is at -11 while SVG is -15, but in truth, it’s going to be far more difficult for SVG to bridge that gap. The New Zealander is still learning ovals and has zero stage points at oval tracks this year. His situation is going to be more about maximizing the final finishing position and hoping trouble befalls those ahead of him. Dillon could realistically point his way in, but stage points will be critical in that effort. If both he and Cindric fail to score any stage points, then he’ll have to beat him by at least 12 positions on track at the checkered flag, which becomes a lot more difficult.
Win or nothing — Bowman and Berry
Josh Berry damage, Wood Brothers Ford
Photo by: David Allio
Just win. While they could mathematically reach the cutline, it’s not a realistic goal. Alex Bowman is 35 points below, while Berry is 45 points in the hole. If either of these drivers can win at Bristol, then they will live to fight another day, but racing for points alone isn’t going to cut it at this point. While things look bleak, there is reason to hope. Bowman still drives for Hendrick Motorsports, and the full might of their extesnsive resources will be behind him this weekend. Berry is also a skilled short track racer, but the Wood Brothers Racing team just haven’t had much pace this year beyond a surprise win at Las Vegas.
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