Atlanta United players bumped chests. The coaching staff linked arms. Team executives hugged. Why shouldn’t they celebrate? They’d just bounced Inter Miami CF and Lionel Messi from the 2024 MLS postseason, pulling off one of the biggest playoff upsets in American sports history.
It was a huge upset, right? Right?
Whether you find it maddening or irresistible, MLS’s fine margins remain a key part of the league. Even against the best of the best, like last year’s Miami team that set a single-season points record, struggling teams still have a chance to win thanks to closely controlled roster rules designed to maintain parity.
Every team that finds itself in the first round of this year’s MLS postseason should view itself as an MLS Cup contender. Conversely, no team should think of itself as anything close to invincible.
Here’s why each team will — and won’t — win MLS Cup.
Supporters’ Shield standings: 15th
Games played in 2025: 41
Regular season goal differential: -8
Regular season expected goal differential: -7.75
Why they will win MLS Cup: Their defense can fuel a run. Austin’s biggest strength lies in its defense, which finished tied for 10th in the league based on non-penalty xG allowed according to FBref. Nico Estévez’s emphasis on disciplined off-ball work features a low line of confrontation: Austin FC enters the postseason with the seventh deepest block based on American Soccer Analysis‘s average height of defensive action metric. You can’t beat Los Verde if you can’t score on them.
Why they won’t win MLS Cup: Their squad is an unbalanced mess. Without attempting to take a shot at promising youngster Owen Wolff, it’s a massive problem that the 20-year-old is this team’s primary playmaker. Austin FC sporting director Rodolfo Borrell has yet to shape his squad into anything resembling a balanced attacking unit, and that will come back to bite the team in the playoffs.
Supporters’ Shield standings: 7th
Games played in 2025: 41
Regular season goal differential: +9
Regular season expected goal differential: -4.04
Why they will win MLS Cup: They have elite goalkeeping. After winning 2024’s Goalkeeper of the Year award, Kristijan Kahlina is in the midst of another excellent season: he saved eight goals more than expected and finished second in the league in save percentage in the regular season, according to FBref.
Kahlina fueled a record-tying nine-game win streak earlier this season. Why couldn’t he fuel a five-game win streak in the playoffs?
Why they won’t win MLS Cup: They rely too much on said elite goalkeeping. You know what’s better than having great goalkeeping? Having that … plus other stuff. As it stands, Charlotte doesn’t have enough firepower outside of Kahlina to make a deep run. Pep Biel‘s continued injury struggles represent a crushing blow to this team’s attack and leaves them far too reliant on flawless play in the back.
Supporters’ Shield standings: 13th
Games played in 2025: 41
Regular season goal differential: +10
Regular season expected goal differential: +4.8
Why they will win MLS Cup: They’re suddenly got a balanced team. For most of 2025, the Fire have been a tale of two extremes: an elite attack and a wet-tissue-paper defense. But ever since Gregg Berhalter put an extra center back on the field last month, Chicago’s defense has been transformed. In their seven games since that tactical switch, the Fire have gone from allowing 1.78 xG per game (27th in MLS) to 1.39 (seventh in MLS), as per ASA. Suddenly, Chicago’s biggest weakness has evaporated.
Why they won’t win MLS Cup: They’re already up against it. After losing a tight game against Philadelphia to open their Round 1 series, things look bleak for Chicago. Toss in the fact that their best player in Philip Zinckernagel missed Sunday’s match with an injury and you have an unpleasant playoff picture taking shape for the Fire.
Supporters’ Shield standings: 2nd
Games played in 2025: 44
Regular season goal differential: +12
Regular season expected goal differential: -7.51
Why they will win MLS Cup: Their talent is elite. It’s impossible to look at Cincinnati’s roster and not be enamored with its talent. From Evander, Kévin Denkey and Brenner in the attack to a spine of MLS standouts, there’s plenty to like. Plus, with Obinna Nwobodo finally healthy enough to start in midfield, FCC have regained some precious stability in the engine room and have the potential to reach MLS Cup.
Why they won’t win MLS Cup: The data thinks they’re a bunch of frauds. FC Cincinnati’s underlying numbers are — how can I put this gently — woeful. They rank just 22nd in xG differential this year, according to ASA, barely beating even some of the league’s worst teams. Of their 20 regular-season wins, 16 came by only a single goal. Up against the best of the best, Cincy looks set to fade.
Supporters’ Shield standings: 12th
Games played in 2025: 42
Regular season goal differential: +4
Regular season expected goal differential: +6.08
Why they will win MLS Cup: They’ve done it before. If you find it difficult to bet against Wilfried Nancy, don’t worry: you’re not alone. With one MLS Cup to his name since taking charge of the Crew in 2023 and a record of success in Montreal with a limited budget, no MLS manager inspires more confidence than Nancy. He’s given Columbus clear on-field instructions and has postseason proof of concept.
Why they won’t win MLS Cup: They don’t defend like they used to.
Back when the Crew lifted MLS Cup in 2023, they ranked 10th in the regular season for non-penalty xG allowed. This year, they’re way down in 18th and have the worst defense of Nancy’s tenure based on that same metric. With injuries in the backline (and the frontline!), this team simply isn’t strong enough to claim two Cups in three years.
Supporters’ Shield standings: 16th
Games played in 2025: 39
Regular season goal differential: -6
Regular season expected goal differential: -5.79
Why they will win MLS Cup: They’ve found new life without Lucho Acosta. In a classic case of addition by subtraction, Dallas went from averaging 1.04 points per game with the Argentine No. 10 to a staggering 1.9 points per game in the regular season after moving him to Brazil. Eric Quill’s shift to a low block that creates transition attacks for Petar Musa has worked a treat.
Why they won’t win MLS Cup: They’re missing too many pieces. Even with Quill’s system designed to minimize the time his players have to defend in space, the lowest of low blocks can’t totally transform Dallas’ low-talent outfit.
Don’t believe me? Check out its opening playoff loss to Vancouver. With below-average defenders surrounding Osaze Urhoghide and an inconsistent central midfield group, Dallas is a few pieces shy of being a true MLS Cup contender.
Supporters’ Shield standings: 6th
Games played in 2025: 49
Regular season goal differential: +25
Regular season expected goal differential: +25.95
Why they will win MLS Cup: Their superstars are red hot. It’s impossible for an opponent to look at LAFC and not immediately start to sweat — that’s just the effect a forward partnership of Son Heung-Min and Denis Bouanga has on people. Since arriving from Tottenham Hotspur, Son has averaged more than a goal contribution per regular season appearance, while Bouanga has exploded for 13 goal contributions in his 10 regular season games with Son. There’s simply no scarier, seemingly title-destined duo in MLS.
Why they won’t win MLS Cup: They still have a clear weakness. For all their attacking power, LAFC can struggle to break down a low block. Steve Cherundolo’s team ranked just 12th in passes into the box in the regular season, according to FBref, despite camping out in the final third early and often. If they’re going to be toppled, it’ll be by a low, compact defense.
Inter Miami
Supporters’ Shield standings: 3rd
Games played in 2025: 55
Regular season goal differential: +28
Regular season expected goal differential: +20.17
Why they will win MLS Cup: Their ceiling is the highest in the league. This one isn’t complicated, folks. At their best, Inter Miami can reach a level no other team in the league can. They became the first MLS team to defeat a European team in an official competition when they topped FC Porto at the Club World Cup and their Messi-led attack is one of the best MLS has seen. I did mention that Messi plays for Miami, didn’t I?
Why they won’t win MLS Cup: They’re too old, too slow, and too bad at defending. Much like last year when they were bounced by Atlanta United, this year’s Inter Miami squad can’t defend. No automatic playoff team allowed more goals than Miami’s 54, and no team in the entire league is older or less mobile. This team is too hilariously unbalanced to win anything important.
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Inter Miami CF vs. Nashville SC – Game Highlights
Inter Miami CF vs. Nashville SC – Game Highlights
Supporters’ Shield standings: 8th
Games played in 2025: 44
Regular season goal differential: +17
Regular season expected goal differential: +1.30
Why they will win MLS Cup: They can win games in ways no other team can. Nobody generated more shots from free kicks this year than Minnesota. Nobody scored more goals off those opportunities than their seven, either. With elite dead-ball play and the hottest goalkeeper in the postseason field in Dayne St. Clair, who boasted MLS’s best save percentage per FBref, the Loons have unique advantages to rely on for a playoff run.
Why they won’t win MLS Cup: Their best player is gone. It’s hard to turn down a check for nearly eight-figures, which is what Minnesota reportedly got from Villarreal in return for the transfer of Tani Oluwaseyi over the summer. But one thing is clear: their form on the field without the Canadian is sagging as much as their pockets. Without Oluwaseyi to lead the transition attacks, Minnesota United simply don’t look consistently dangerous as they’ll need to at this time of year.
Supporters’ Shield standings: 11th
Games played in 2025: 42
Regular season goal differential: +11
Regular season expected goal differential: +17.20
Why they will win MLS Cup: They’ve already proven their knockout bonafides. Nashville looks unrecognizable under B.J. Callaghan compared to past years, and their revamped style of play has already helped lead the club to a U.S. Open Cup triumph. With the confidence that comes from winning a knockout tournament, a steady defense, and a dynamic attack led by Hany Mukhtar and Sam Surridge, there’s a whole lot to like about Nashville’s chances.
Why they won’t win MLS Cup: Their record against the best of the best is uninspiring. In nine regular season games against teams that finished in the top four in either conference, Nashville SC boasts a record of just three wins to pair with six losses. Toss in an opening postseason defeat to Miami, and this team has struggled too often against the best MLS has to offer.
Supporters’ Shield standings: 9th
Games played in 2025: 40
Regular season goal differential: +6
Regular season expected goal differential: +6.26
Why they will win MLS Cup: They control games with an iron grip. First-year New York City coach Pascal Jansen has leaned into the possession-heavy style of play we all associate with City Football Group teams: NYCFC’s 54% possession ranked them fifth in MLS’s regular season. All of that ball control has turned into control of matches, with New York City boasting the league’s sixth-best defensive record based on FBref’s non-penalty xG metric. If you can’t poke the ball away from a team, it tends to be hard to beat them.
Why they won’t win MLS Cup: They don’t have enough help for Alonso Martínez. The Costa Rica striker has posted 15.4 non-penalty xG this year. His next closest teammate, Hannes Wolf? He’s managed just 6.6.
The Pigeons are simply too reliant on Martínez. If he’s marked out of the game, what then?
Supporters’ Shield standings: 1st
Games played in 2025: 41
Regular season goal differential: +22
Regular season expected goal differential: +18.26
Why they will win MLS Cup: They’re back to their stylistic best. Back when the Union were one Gareth Bale header away from lifting the 2022 MLS Cup, they were a hyper-aggressive team. After some brief wanderings in the stylistic wilderness, they’ve become that team again: Philly forces opponents into the most vertical passes in MLS, as per American Soccer Analysis. When in doubt, returning to the principles that got you to your last MLS Cup is a fine strategy.
Why they won’t win MLS Cup: They just lost their best central playmaker. Losing Quinn Sullivan to an ACL tear was a brutal twist of fate for Philadelphia. The 21-year-old attacking midfielder ranked second in the squad for passes into the box. Without Sullivan, the Union won’t be as dangerous when opponents sit deep and force them to hit the final ball.
Supporters’ Shield standings: 17th
Games played in 2025: 43
Regular season goal differential: -6
Regular season expected goal differential: -12.47
Why they will win MLS Cup: Their splashy summer signing looks like a hit. It’s rare to get production from a summer signing in MLS simply because of how late the transfer window falls in the league’s calendar, but the Timbers have found a true impact player in Kristoffer Velde. Even with new surroundings, the Designated Player attacker finds himself in the 89th percentile for shot-creating actions among No. 10s and wingers in MLS, as per FBref. He’s already on the scoresheet in the playoffs, too.
Why they won’t win MLS Cup: Their splashy winter signing looks like a bust. Although Velde has thrived, David Da Costa has struggled in Portland. The attacking midfielder was benched as recently as last month and has just eight non-penalty goal contributions. A clear downgrade from Evander, Da Costa represents the Timbers’ talent bleed that will leave them short of MLS Cup.
Supporters’ Shield standings: 4th
Games played in 2025: 40
Regular season goal differential: +24
Regular season expected goal differential: +9.17
Why they will win MLS Cup: They’re stylistic cousins of the past two winners. If you look back at the last two Cup winners in the Columbus Crew and the LA Galaxy, you see two incredibly ball-dominant teams. San Diego took a page from their trophy-winning predecessors and led the league in passes this year, connecting play downfield to draw the opposing press and expose space in behind. That approach has worked two years running. Why couldn’t it work once more?
Why they won’t win MLS Cup: Teams now know how to beat them. San Diego can’t catch teams by surprise with their style anymore. Opponents know that sitting deep, attacking on the break and hitting on set pieces is the way to topple them. According to ASA, the expansion outfit sits 16th in MLS in xG allowed on fast breaks and dead balls. They’re too leaky to win it all.
Supporters’ Shield standings: 10th
Games played in 2025: 50
Regular season goal differential: +10
Regular season expected goal differential: +15.03
Why they will win MLS Cup: There aren’t any holes in their roster. Heading into the playoffs, only two teams in MLS played more games than Seattle’s 49 across all competitions. To navigate one of the busiest schedules in league history, the Sounders’ front office has built a roster with depth and quality across every single position. With elite underlying numbers on both sides of the ball, they’ll be ready for anything this postseason.
Why they won’t win MLS Cup: They’re too tired. Surely there’s a point at which the Sounders start to tire from their jam-packed schedule. Even with a deep roster, that Seattle has played six more games than their Round 1 opponent and 10 more than their most likely conference semifinal foe in San Diego is a distinct disadvantage.
Supporters’ Shield standings: 5th
Games played in 2025: 51
Regular season goal differential: +31
Regular season expected goal differential: +29.60
Why they will win MLS Cup: They just keep making history. This year’s Whitecaps team hasn’t only put together the best season in club history, it has managed one of the best seasons in league history, finishing with the second-most points of any MLS team in the modern era to reach the Concacaf Champions Cup final. Doubt their Cup potential at your own peril.
Why they won’t win MLS Cup: They’re too injured. Vancouver is undergoing a center back crisis: Ranko Veselinovic, Tristan Blackmon and the two players signed to fill in for them are either injured or aren’t bedded in. Ryan Gauld hasn’t been fit enough to start. Brian White has been out injured. The list goes on. Jesper Sørensen’s team has found results without key players throughout the season, but continuing that trend in the playoffs will be a bridge too far.
