Just over a quarter of the way through the 2025-26 NHL season, one trend has caused tired legs, frayed nerves and instant goal-scoring highlights:
Overtime games are being played at a record-setting rate.
In the season’s first 425 games, 27.3% of them had the score tied after regulation, requiring a resolution in either the 3-on-3 overtime or in the shootout. If that trend holds, it would be the highest percentage of games going to overtime since the shootout was implemented in the 2005-06 season, topping the 25% of games that went to OT in the 2013-14 season.
What’s accounted for this spike in overtime games? Could the trend last?
Here are five theories that have come up during conversations with NHL players, coaches and executives about how “extra” this season’s been so far.
Theory: NHL parity means more overtime
Dallas Stars coach Glen Gulutzan has a theory about all these overtimes.
“I think it’s a bit of a ‘squished can,’ to be honest with you,” he said.
A squished can?
“You see a lot of the top teams over the last few years and how they’ve lost players to other teams,” he said. “And then the development of some of these young stars in the league that now have now two, three years in the league … I think it’s squished the league a little bit.”
Parity is the force behind that squish — or “competitive balance,” as NHL commissioner Gary Bettman has referred to it during the salary cap era. Entering Thursday night, 28 out of 32 teams in the NHL had a points percentage of .500 or better. At the end of last season, that number was 23 teams.
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Casey Mittelstadt delivers Bruins a win with shootout goal
Casey Mittelstadt wins it in the shootout for the Bruins vs. the Red Wings.
“Parity” is the go-to answer for many in the NHL.
“I guess teams are even this year. There’s a lot of tie games, a lot of one-goal games,” Stars forward Mikko Rantanen said.
“There’s a record level of parity in the league. I mean from last to first, I mean the points differential and stuff, I can’t remember that really being the case in my 10 years. I think it’s just a really competitive league right now,” New Jersey Devils forward Connor Brown said.
“You look at the standings, and if you’re on top of the mountain, you’re really not on top of the mountain. You’re in the middle of the forest. It’s so tight,” Detroit Red Wings coach Todd McLellan said, via NHL.com.
League parity is nothing new, but there might be a twist on that theme for 2025-26: Some of the league’s rebuilding teams have been ahead of schedule — and playing plenty of overtime games.
The San Jose Sharks had nine of their first 28 games go past regulation. The Chicago Blackhawks had seven such games in their first 26. The Anaheim Ducks had seven of their first 27 games go past three periods.
“The top teams have lost some players with the cap, and the bottom teams have grown up and then gained some players,” Gulutzan said. “So that’s what happens. It squishes the standings.”
Theory: Playing for the tie
With the standings so tight, every point counts. Finishing regulation in a tie game means both teams earn a point before overtime or the shootout determine who gets a second point in the standings.
Stars forward Jason Robertson said teams aren’t putting the pedal down if overtime beckons.
“When there are a couple minutes left, I think no one’s really pressing,” he said.
Devils coach Sheldon Keefe believes there are an increasing number of games tied entering the third period.
“Teams maybe are a little more conservative in nature to just make sure you get the least the one [point]. So a lot of that’s coming through what’s happening through the first two periods to set the table for that,” he said.
But if Keefe’s team has a lead in the third period?
“You’re mindful of the quick-strike ability of the opponents when you’re playing with the lead, and just how diligent you’ve got to be,” he said.
Theory: No lead is safe anymore
Ducks general manager Pat Verbeek never feels comfortable when his team has a multi-goal lead.
“Every team that you’re playing against, they have game breakers,” he said. “You get down two goals, it’s not the end of the world. We’ve battled back from two goals down numerous times.”
It wasn’t too long ago that a multi-goal deficit in the third period meant the game was over. Today, those types of rallies feel commonplace. Last season, 43% of games were comeback victories, the second highest rate in NHL history. According to the NHL, 74% of last season’s wins were in “close games,” meaning games that were decided by one goal, or by 2-plus goals following an empty-netter. That was the highest rate in NHL history.
“Comebacks and teams that are tying up games and coming from behind, I think there’s an upward trend in that area,” Keefe said.
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Simon Nemec scores OT winner for Devils
Simon Nemec buries the game-winning goal in overtime to lift New Jersey to victory.
The trend started in 2018-19, which is when the league went over two goals per game in the third period. It’s remained over that average for the last seven seasons. Through 850 games in 2025-26, the NHL was averaging 2.14 goals per game in the third period, which is in line with the previous four seasons. The shooting percentage in the third period this season in that span is 12% in the third period. Last season it was 11.8%, which was almost a full percentage point higher than the previous season.
Gulutzan believes that special teams are a key factor in these comeback wins. NHL power-play conversion rates have been over 20% on average in six of the last eight seasons. The 21.6% conversion rate last season was the highest since the 1985-86 season. Through 425 games this season, teams are converting on the power play at a 19.9% rate.
“These power plays have gotten so good that over the last few years, the game can turn on offensive swings,” said Gulutzan, who ran the Edmonton Oilers‘ power play before joining the Stars as head coach last summer.
Verbeek agreed.
“I think obviously the rules and how the games is being played comes into that. Power plays come into play,” he said. “Referees aren’t afraid to call power plays anytime of the game, so that leads into it. You’re never out of it.”
But does all of this add up to a lot of comebacks in the third period?
According to ESPN Research, there have been 68 comeback wins this season in which a team was trailing at any point in the third period. That’s five more wins than the league had at this point last season but only the third-highest mark of the last six seasons. In 2023-24 at this time, the NHL had 78 third-period comeback wins.
Theory: Coaching tactics lead to more OT
Gulutzan said coaches have had to adapt to this surge in third-period scoring, but that’s more about managing emotions than anything systematic.
“What’s changed is your messaging a little bit, and the fact that up two [goals] or down two you see the wild swings and you’re not out of it. There’s less panic on the bench. Just stick with your game a little bit,” he said. “I think just your mentality has changed a little bit. Nothing tactically.”
Keefe also said it’s not because coaches are rewriting their game plans.
“To me it’s more about the rhythm and consistency and the confidence. I wouldn’t say we make any real adjustments. We still want to be aggressive. You want to play on the other team’s half of the ice, just maybe want to be a little more intelligent with the puck and your line changes,” he said. “But the plan really hasn’t changed.”
But Meghan Chayka, co-founder of Stathletes and a hockey data analyst, believes the numbers point to a tactical change from coaches. “Teams are defending leads more conservatively,” she said.
That’s been an ongoing trend. Chayka said that scoring chances are down 5.57% in the final 10 minutes of games since 2015.
She also believes that how coaches choose to manage their goaltenders is also influencing the tightness of games late in regulation.
“In 2015, there were 10 goalies who played 60-plus games, with 68 as the highest number of games. Last season, five goalies played over 60 games and 63 games was the most,” she said.” There has been a shift in workload management for starting goalies. That leads to a conversation about systems and tactics. When a backup goalie is in net, coaches tending to have the team play more conservative and that it can lead to the closer games.”
Theory: This too shall pass?
Over the past nine seasons, the number of overtime games in the NHL has held consistently:
2024-25: 20.5%
2023-24: 20.7%
2022-23: 23%
2021-22: 22%
2020-21: 22.5%
2019-20: 23.1%
2018-19: 21.3%
2017-18: 23.3%
2016-17: 23.5%
So the range is somewhere between 21%-24% as far as games going to overtime. It’s not hard to see a scenario in which this season normalizes to that trend after some anomalous stretches early in the season — including weeks in which 35% and 39% of all games went to overtime, respectively.
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Wyatt Johnston wins it for the Stars in a shootout
Wyatt Johnston wins it for the Stars in a shootout
Or perhaps it won’t. Chayka says “the game has become more random this season,” in particular when looking at results through the lens of sports wagering.
“Looking at the numbers and particularly how accurate the betting lines are in predicting game winners, the level of error has continued to increase, meaning games have been harder and harder to predict,” she said.
To that end, Chayka said the expected score winner has only been the actual game winner 54% of the time, per Stathletes.
Conclusion: Obviously, regulation wins should count for three points, right?
Many fans and media members have argued that making regulation wins worth three points — while regulation losses get nothing, an OT/shootout win gets two and a loss after regulation gets one — would be an enticement for teams to avoid playing for overtime.
Others aren’t as keen on the “3-2-1” points system. Former NHL GM Brian Burke once told ESPN that “you will have teams mathematically eliminated from the playoffs by Christmas” and that “I’d rather put a sharp stick in my eye” than have three-point regulation wins.
Robertson also isn’t a fan of three-point regulation wins.
“I’m traditional. I don’t really like any real change,” he said. “I actually enjoy the shootout. I think that’s great for hockey. I love it. I love watching it as a fan, just being at home, the shootout on, I’d rather watch a shootout than overtime.”
So far, this has been his kind of season: Only 65.5% of games tied after regulation were decided in overtime. That would be the highest percentage of games going to a shootout since 2021-22.
