Does Cade Cunningham‘s production make him an MVP candidate?
Two years ago, I wrote an article asking this same question about a different young guard. And the similarities were striking.
In 2023, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was coming off a season where he had led a team most believed was lottery-bound to a playoff run. Gilgeous-Alexander had posted great numbers while doing so, in what was the first largely healthy season of his prime. And early in the 2023-24 season, he had the eighth-shortest MVP odds, according to ESPN BET.
Fast-forward to today, and Cunningham is coming off a season in which he led his previously lottery-bound Detroit Pistons to the playoffs. This was the first time in his career that Cunningham, the No. 1 pick in the 2021 NBA draft, was able to play in more than 64 games in a season. Now, a week into the season, Cunningham has the eighth-shortest MVP odds (100-1), according to ESPN BET.
Is Cunningham actually a viable MVP candidate for this season?
In the above example, SGA went on to finish second in the 2023-24 MVP race and many thought he should have won. That helped pave the way for him to come back and win the 2024-25 MVP. Is Cunningham on that same path?
First, let’s look at Cunningham’s competition and what he would need to produce individually to get himself in the MVP conversation.
Per ESPN BET, the favorites to win this season’s MVP are Gilgeous-Alexander (+250), Victor Wembanyama (+275) and Nikola Jokic (+375).
Gilgeous-Alexander, the reigning MVP, led the NBA in scoring last season, averaging 32.7 PPG, 6.4 APG and 5.0 RPG.
Wembanyama was arguably the most anticipated player in NBA history when he entered the league just over two years ago, and through the first week of the season he is living up to the expectations with averages of 33.3 PPG, 13.3 RPG and 6.0 (!) BPG. If he maintains this pace, it may be hard for anyone else to win MVP this season.
Jokic, who has finished top-2 in the MVP vote in five straight seasons, winning three of them, is fresh off becoming the first center in NBA history to average a triple-double for a full season. He also became the first player in NBA history to finish top-4 in each of points, assists, rebounds and steals per game in the same season with averages of 29.6 PPG, 12.7 RPG, 10.2 APG and 2.0 SPG.
Cunningham’s last-season averages of 26.1 PPG, 9.1 APG and 6.1 RPG, while impressive, are not on the same level. That said, Cunningham’s hope is that he has improved his scoring and assists per game averages in every season of his career, and the amount in which he has improved has increased each season.
If Cunningham can make similar improvements this season, by 3.9 PPG and just 0.9 APG, he would become only the fourth player in NBA history to average 30 PPG and 10 APG. The first was former MVP Oscar Robertson. The most recent was former MVP Russell Westbrook. If Cunningham can get his numbers to this level, they would at least be in the same conversation with the video game-like numbers of the other main candidates.
But there’s another main area to look — Cunningham’s impact on winning.
How does Cunningham’s presence translate to Pistons success?
Last season, Gilgeous-Alexander had the second-best on-court/off-court plus-minus (on/off +/-) in the NBA, with the Thunder 17.5 points per 100 possessions (PP100) better with him on-court than when he was off. And he did this for a Thunder squad with the best record in the NBA at 68-14.
Jokic, last season, had the best on/off +/- in the NBA at +19.0 PP100, the fourth straight season his on/off +/- was more than 16 PP100. But the Nuggets’ record slid a bit, down to 50-32 after they’d gone 57-25 the season before when Jokic won his third MVP.
Cunningham’s on/off +/- last season was only +3.4 PP100, but it was on a Pistons team that improved from 14-68 the season before the 44-38. To seriously get into the MVP race this season, Cunningham is going to need to generate a double-digits on/off +/- and the Pistons will likely need to win at least 55-60 games.
That last is likely to be the most difficult, but in the Eastern Conference the Pistons do have a chance to get to the top. With Jayson Tatum and Tyrese Haliburton, the best players respectively on the last two teams to win the Eastern Conference, both out injured the East is wide open this season. If the Pistons can improve from the fifth seed last season to the top seed this season, regardless of their record, Cunningham will get some MVP buzz.
Cunningham has work to do to be a top MVP candidate this season
While Cunningham still has ground to make up to enter the same realm as those Wembanyama, SGA and Jokic, his numbers and the Pistons’ improvement arc suggests it is possible.
The most recent MVP, Gilgeous-Alexander, had a very similar improvement arc two seasons ago. With Cunningham getting such incredibly long odds at 100-1, there is some lottery-ticket value in betting on him.
The most likely outcome is that it will take another couple seasons for Cunningham to really get into the highest level, but the unique circumstances in the East give Cunningham at least a fighting chance to break into the top-5 or better in the MVP vote this season.
