WNBA Draft Lottery odds: Will Paige Bueckers’ Wings claim the #1 pick? originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
The WNBA on Friday revealed when the 2026 WNBA Draft Lottery will be held as the league’s calendar becomes a little clearer amid ongoing collective bargaining negotiations.
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The league and the Women’s National Basketball Players Association (WNBPA) continue to discuss a new collective bargaining agreement after reaching a deal to extend the current CBA by 30 days. That extension is important for all parties; the players are attempting to secure enormous financial gains in a league where the supermax salary tops out at $249,244, and they want those gains to include a larger percentage of basketball-related income (i.e. WNBA revenue).
However, the commissioner’s office led by Cathy Engelbert still has a league to run and a calendar to maintain as they continue to negotiate with the players’ union. Two new teams, the Portland Fire and the Toronto Tempo, will enter the league in 2026, and their rosters need to be filled via a special expansion draft. The reveal of the draft lottery date may be the first step toward finalizing the calendar — which may offer an indication that negotiations are progressing toward a successful resolution in the weeks ahead,
Wings have the best odds to pick first
The WNBA announced that ESPN will carry its draft lottery beginning at 6:30 p.m. ET on Nov. 23.
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Five teams — the Chicago Sky, Dallas Wings, the Minnesota Lynx, the Seattle Storm and the Washington Mystics — are vying for the number one pick. But the Wings will enter lottery night as the favorites to secure that precious #1 selection.
The Wings have a 42 percent shot to win the first overall pick in the 2026 draft, and Dallas is guaranteed to pick somewhere in the top three. The Lynx (26 percent) and the Storm (16.7) have the next-best odds to win the lottery; despite reaching the playoffs in 2025, both teams hold high picks due to previous trades.
Both the Mystics (9.7) and the Sky (5.5) have less than a 10 percent chance to win the lottery.
Unlike 2023 (Aliyah Boston), 2024 (Caitlin Clark) or 2025 (Paige Bueckers), the 2026 draft class does not have a clear #1 prospect as yet. UCLA center Lauren Betts is expected to be in the conversation to go first overall, along with TCU guard Olivia Miles, UConn guard Azzi Fudd and Valencia Basket phenom Awa Fam.
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