WNBA power rankings: Chaos reigns with nearly every playoff position up for grabs in a historically close race

Every game radiates playoff energy with two weeks remaining in the WNBA regular season, and nearly every postseason position is up for grabs.

The Minnesota Lynx, the only certainty in the field, can lock up the No. 1 seed this week. Below them, chaos reigns. The No. 2 and No. 5 seeds are separated by 1.5 games. Six games separate the No. 2 and No. 9 seeds, a noteworthy gap that, should it hold, is the closest finish of the last five years. A year ago, the ninth-place finisher (and first out of the playoff picture) was 15 games back of the No. 2 seed. Three years ago, it was a wide 24-game gap. The closest was 12 games in 2021.

If the season were to end on Tuesday morning, all eight postseason teams would be above .500. Only five teams did so in 2024; the max since the league moved away from a conference-based playoff format is seven in 2018 and 2019.

The three teams already eliminated from playoff contention are playing spoiler already. Last week, Connecticut’s back-to-back 11-point wins over Washington pushed the Mystics to the brink of the playoff picture. Chicago’s 91-85 upset over New York knocked the Liberty all the way down to fifth, leaving the reigning champions to scrap their way into a home-court advantage berth.

The Minnesota Lynx are dancing into the playoffs, while the rest of the league is fighting for home-court advantage and their playoff lives. (AP Photo/Abbie Parr)

(ASSOCIATED PRESS)

“When you give a team hope, that’s all they need,” Sabrina Ionescu said, a message to all that the nightly swapping of spots in the standings isn’t ending soon.

The Lynx and Aces are the only teams to clinch playoff berths, while Chicago, Connecticut and Dallas are eliminated. With between five and nine games left for teams, here’s a look at where teams stand and which face more advantageous schedules to lock in berths.

Locked in

Minnesota Lynx (30-7)

Schedule: vs. Storm, at Sun, vs. Wings, at Aces, Valkyries, Fever; vs. Valkyries

The Lynx are in a league of their own. They clinched their berth two weeks ago, welcomed back MVP contender Napheesa Collier over the weekend, and dropped their magic number for the top seed to two. It’s as near a lock as anything in the postseason picture, and could be completed by Thursday with a win over Seattle if the Dream lose to Las Vegas on Wednesday night. Atlanta and Las Vegas are six games back.

In the nine seasons since the WNBA moved away from a conference postseason format, the No. 1 seed won the championship six times.

Home-court advantage

Atlanta Dream (24-13)

Schedule: vs. Aces, Wings; at Sun; vs. Sparks, Sparks, Sun; at Sun

The second seed is the Dream’s to lose. Atlanta plays the easiest remaining schedule as of Monday, since only one of their final seven games is against a team above .500. Yet, there are some trap games waiting. The Sun lead the league in steals (10 per game) through the month of August and are on a three-game win streak. And Atlanta hasn’t played surging Los Angeles since May, before the Sparks tapped into their high-scoring ways.

Las Vegas Aces (25-14)

Schedule: at Dream, Sky and Sparks; vs. Sky, Sky and Lynx

The Aces are the team with the best turnaround story of the season. They’re 15-3 since the All-Star break, when they were in danger of missing the playoffs completely at .500. Now on an 11-game winning streak, they could finish as the No. 2 seed if they can take down Atlanta for the regular-season series sweep this week. They will have a full week off before facing the Lynx. But the completion of that four-game series with Chicago, led by former assistant coach Tyler Marsh, appears trickier to sweep after the Aces edged out a 79-74 win in Chicago on Monday.

Phoenix Mercury (22-14, 1.5 GB of No. 2 seed)

Schedule: at Sparks; vs. Sky, Liberty and Fever; at Mystics, Sun; vs. Sparks; at Wings

Phoenix is also looking at one of the easier schedules by record, facing the Wings, Sun, Sky, Mystics and Sparks at least once each. A win over New York on Saturday is key since tiebreakers could come into play in this group. The Mercury are at a disadvantage at 0-3 versus Atlanta (0-3) and 1-3 versus Las Vegas. They’re currently 2-1 against New York.

New York Liberty (23-15, 1.5 GB)

Schedule: vs. Mystics; at Mercury, Valkyries, Storm; vs. Mystics; at Sky

The Liberty need to make up ground, and quickly. Returning Breanna Stewart will help after New York’s defensive rating shot up 10 points in her absence. There’s been a severe lack of continuity in the roster’s availability; no matchup is a gimme. Since the Dream (.366 strength of schedule), Mercury (.405) and Aces (.452) have the three easiest schedules, it’s plausible New York begins the postseason on the road.

Push for the playoffs

6. Seattle Storm (20-18)

Schedule: at Fever and Lynx; vs. Sky, Sparks, Liberty, Valkyries

The sixth-place Storm could mathematically move up, at three games back of New York as of Tuesday morning, but their inconsistency keeps them in the lower category. And this pack of teams is as close as the first, with 1.5 games separating sixth place from ninth, the first out of the postseason picture.

7. Golden State Valkyries (19-18, .5 GB of No. 6 seed)

Schedule: vs. Mystics, Fever, Liberty, Wings, Lynx; at Storm, Lynx

The Valkyries face the most difficult backend slate (.557 strength of schedule). They play four games in six days beginning on Saturday (Mystics), but all are at home, where crowds lead the WNBA in attendance. The penultimate regular-season contest in Seattle will be a big factor, but even a season finale in Minnesota is a plus for Golden State. It’s unlikely that the Lynx would play their starters full minutes on a short turnaround to the first round of the playoffs.

8. Indiana Fever (19-18, .5 GB)

Schedule: vs. Storm; at Sparks, Valkyries and Mercury; vs. Sky; at Mystics; vs. Lynx

Injuries decimated the Fever, which used a franchise-record 17 players this season and are playing with their fourth point guard. It’s their second offensive leader picked up off the waiver wires. A return by Caitlin Clark would be a boost; going without her, the Fever are most likely to fall out of contention. They’ve yet to defeat Los Angeles (0-3), Golden State (0-2) or Minnesota (0-2). It’s to their advantage that they finish the season with a Lynx team that might rest their starters early. And they finish two days before the regular season ends, a rest buffer if Clark is back.

Fighting into the picture

9. Los Angeles Sparks (17-18, 1 GB)

Schedule: vs. Mercury, Fever, Mystics; at Storm, Dream, Dream; vs. Wings; at Mercury; vs. Aces

The Sparks head into the final two weeks holding the most opportunities of any team. They have nine games to make up ground and pass by an Indiana squad struggling with injuries, while the Sparks are healthy again. They might be the most dangerous lower seed to draw in the playoffs, but if they don’t live up to Kelsey Plum’s call for more defense, they’ll be watching from the couch.

10. Washington Mystics (16-22, 3.5 GB)

Schedule: at Liberty, Valkyries, Sparks; vs. Mercury, Fever; at New York

Washington might look back at its two four-game losing streaks in August as where a surprise postseason berth slipped out of its grasp. Those are their longest losing streaks of the season, and the one last week began with back-to-back losses to lottery team Connecticut.

The Mystics face one of the toughest final stretches, highlighted by two games against the Liberty. (Is it written in a contract somewhere that the Mystics have to end with a game against New York?)

Performer of the week: Veronica Burton, Golden State Valkyries

With due respect to MVP contender A’ja Wilson’s massive 29-point, 12.7-rebound double-double average in another 3-0 week for the Las Vegas Aces, the weekly award landed farther west.

Valkyries point guard Veronica Burton averaged a league-high 11.7 assists last week in two losses to Phoenix (by nine and seven points, respectively) and a 90-81 win over Dallas. It’s the best three-game stretch of dimes this season, trailing the 12.7 average by Alyssa Thomas in the first month of the season, Thomas averaged 10 per game last week. Burton turned it over five times to Thomas’ 13.

Burton averaged 20 points, shooting 45% from the field and 30% from beyond the arc, while going 18-of-18 from the free throw line. The Most Improved Player contender secured her three best scoring performances of her career this month as Golden State chases a playoff berth in its inaugural season. She had zero turnovers in a 24-point, 14-rebound performance against Phoenix on Friday.

Game of the week

Las Vegas Aces at Atlanta Dream, Wednesday at 7:30 p.m. ET (NBA TV): The Aces and Dream face two of the easiest schedules down the stretch, but they will have to go through each other to win the No. 2 seed. Their final of three regular-season clashes could be the determining factor. The Dream have wins against every team except the Aces, who kept them more than 10 points below their 83.2 points per game average in each of the Aces’ two wins. Both of those games were in Las Vegas.

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