World Championships Predictions (Men’s): Leon Marchand Chasing More Golds and Records
Given his pristine record at previous major international competitions, no one expects anything but the same dominance from Leon Marchand at this year’s World Championships. In Paris, he became only the third man in history to win four individual golds at a single Games, joining Mark Spitz and Michael Phelps, and Marchand has performed supremely well at World Championships as well, with two golds and one silver in 2022 followed by three golds in 2023.
Marchand would be favored in all four of his individual races in Singapore, but he opted to focus on the individual medley events and skip the 200 butterfly and 200 breaststroke. In addition to Marchand, the Olympic gold medalist in every event except one will be in action in Singapore; the list includes Thomas Ceccon, Bobby Finke, Hubert Kos, Lukas Martens, Nicolo Martinenghi, Cameron McEvoy, Pan Zhanle, David Popovici and Dan Wiffen.
World-record holders Qin Haiyang and Kliment Kolesnikov will also be among the favorites, with Kolesnikov heading a group of Russians competing under the title “Neutral Athletes B.” Russian participation in major meets has been extremely limited in recent years as a result of the country’s invasion of Ukraine, but a solid showing is expected from the country’s swimmers this year.
Lukas Martens — Photo Courtesy: Giorgio Scala / Deepbluemedia / Insidefoto
Sunday, July 27
400 Freestyle
Gold: Lukas Martens, Germany
Silver: Sam Short, Australia
Bronze: Kim Woo-min, South Korea
Short might be back to his form from 2023, when he was world champion in this event, but Martens became the first man under 3:40 earlier this year. Rex Maurer will contend for the first American medal in this race since 2013.
400 Freestyle Relay
Gold: United States
Silver: Australia
Bronze: Neutral Athletes B
Look for Jack Alexy to give his team a lead it will not relinquish. Kyle Chalmers and Egor Kornev make the difference for their respective squads, with Italy, Great Britain and China also in the medal mix.
Monday, July 28
100 Breaststroke
Gold: Qin Haiyang, China
Silver: Nicolo Martinenghi, Italy
Bronze: Lucas Matzerath, Germany
A host of contenders for the medals, but Qin and Martinenghi have by far the most winning experience in the field.
50 Butterfly
Gold: Noè Ponti, Switzerland
Silver: Maxime Grousset, France
Bronze: Thomas Ceccon, Italy
Canada’s Ilya Kharun and the Netherlands’ Nyls Korstanje will be hard to deny spots on the podium, but Ponti is poised for his first long course world title.
David Popovici — Photo Courtesy: Andrea Masini / Deepbluemedia / Insidefoto
Tuesday, July 29
200 Freestyle
Gold: David Popovici, Romania
Silver: Luke Hobson, United States
Bronze: Matt Richards, Great Britain
Popovici will try to hold off Hobson, who has one of the best chances to secure U.S. gold. Watch to see if Pan Zhanle makes a run at a medal here.
100 Backstroke
Gold: Kliment Kolesnikov, Neutral Athletes B
Silver: Thomas Ceccon, Italy
Bronze: Pieter Coetze, South Africa
Another open field here, but Kolesnikov might be able to get the better of the Olympic champion. Hungary’s Hubert Kos will have a say in the outcome, as will Great Britain’s Oliver Morgan, China’s Xu Jiayu and neutral athlete Miron Lifintsev, the short course world champion.
Wednesday, July 30
800 Freestyle
Gold: Dan Wiffen, Ireland
Silver: Sven Schwarz, Germany
Bronze: Bobby Finke, United States
Wiffen should back up his Olympic gold, and we know Finke will be competitive at the end. Sam Short has the quickest lifetime best of anyone in the field while Lukas Martens should have momentum coming off the 400 free.
200 Butterfly
Gold: Ilya Kharun, Canada
Silver: Luca Urlando, United States
Bronze: Krzysztof Chmielewski, Poland
The top-two finishers from Paris, Leon Marchand and Kristof Milak, are both absent. That opens the door for Kharun, the Olympic bronze medalist, and Urlando, who swam a time of 1:52.37 in April.
50 Breaststroke
Gold: Qin Haiyang, China
Silver: Simone Cerasuolo, Italy
Bronze: Ilya Shymanovich, Neutral Athletes A
World No. 1 swimmer Ludovico Viberti is not one of the two Italian representatives in the field, but the country has two medal contenders in Cerasuolo and Nicolo Martinenghi.
Mixed 400 Medley Relay
Gold: China
Silver: United States
Bronze: Australia
With the Americans missing front-half swimmers Ryan Murphy and Nic Fink from the Olympic-gold-medal relay, China holds on for gold.
Thursday, July 31
100 Freestyle
Gold: Pan Zhanle, China
Silver: David Popovici, Romania
Bronze: Jack Alexy, United States
Pan clocked an otherworldly 46.40 for Olympic gold, but Popovici went 46.71 earlier this year. Alexy is the only other swimmer in the field who has been under 47. Brazil’s Gui Caribe looks to crash the party while Australia’s Kyle Chalmers is always a tough out.
200 Individual Medley
Gold: Leon Marchand, France
Silver: Duncan Scott, Great Britain
Bronze: Carson Foster, United States
Could this be the moment that Marchand cracks through the world record? Ryan Lochte’s time of 1:54.00 dates back to 2011.
Hubert Kos — Photo Courtesy: Andrea Masini / Deepbluemedia / Insidefoto
Friday, August 1
200 Backstroke
Gold: Hubert Kos, Hungary
Silver: Jack Aikins, United States
Bronze: Pieter Coetze, South Africa
Kos will be extremely tough to beat, but Aikins and Coetze have both recorded breakthrough performances this year. Thomas Ceccon is set to make a rare appearance in the event.
200 Breaststroke
Gold: Qin Haiyang, China
Silver: Ippei Watanabe, Japan
Bronze: Caspar Corbeau, Netherlands
Marchand’s withdrawal will benefit Qin, Watanabe, Corbeau and Japan’s Yu Hanaguruma.
800 Freestyle Relay
Gold: United States
Silver: Great Britain
Bronze: Australia
The depth displayed by the Americans this year might be enough to finally knock off a full-strength British squad. The world record, a relic from 2009, should be under threat.
Saturday, August 2
50 Freestyle
Gold: Cameron McEvoy, Australia
Silver: Jack Alexy, United States
Bronze: Ben Proud, Great Britain
This would be a repeat of the finish at the 2023 World Championships, but Egor Kornev and Gui Caribe will try to break that up.
100 Butterfly
Gold: Josh Liendo, Canada
Silver: Noè Ponti, Switzerland
Bronze: Ilya Kharun, Canada
It is extremely hard to leave France’s Maxime Grousset off the podium, but it might be time for Liendo to finally claim a world title.
Mixed 400 Freestyle Relay
Gold: United States
Silver: Australia
Bronze: China
Kyle Chalmers is an all-time great relay swimmer, and using only two swimmers per gender will neutralize the depth advantage for both the U.S. in the single-gender events, but the Americans have enough firepower here.
Bobby Finke — Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick
Sunday, August 3
50 Backstroke
Gold: Kliment Kolesnikov, Neutral Athletes B
Silver: Pavel Samusenko, Neutral Athletes B
Bronze: Xu Jiayu, China
The Russian teammates stamp their return to global competition with this 1-2 finish.
400 Individual Medley
Gold: Leon Marchand, France
Silver: Carson Foster, United States
Bronze: Tomoyuki Matsushita, Japan
A world record will be challenging on the final day of the meet, but anyone coming close to Marchand here would be an enormous surprise.
1500 Freestyle
Gold: Bobby Finke, United States
Silver: Dan Wiffen, Ireland
Bronze: Sven Schwarz, Germany
Just like in Paris, Bobby Finke breaks up the American gold-medal shutout in the final individual event.
400 Medley Relay
Gold: China
Silver: Neutral Athletes B
Bronze: United States
The inexperience on the front half is too much for the Americans to overcome as Qin Haiyang and Pan Zhanle power China to another gold.
