They start to matter now. Xavier hasn’t put themselves in the best of positions, but the games from here on out aren’t just playing out the string. Win some big ones, don’t lose the not big ones, and suddenly Selection Sunday will once again be a nail-biting event.
This should have been one of those chances to win a big one. Creighton was picked to finish third in the Big East and started the season ranked 23rd in the AP poll. To put it simply, they aren’t any more. Creighton won a game, then lost to Gonzaga. Deciding they liked the feeling of that , they have since lost to Baylor, Iowa St, Nebraska, and Kansas St. None of those are bad losses, but a best win of Oregon isn’t exactly what these have in mind. They are now 5-5 and lower on the NET than Xavier.
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That’s not saying that Xavier is exactly in a great position. This is a Q3 at home, but it’s not exactly a buy game. X has played two home Q3s this season and won them by a grand total of nine points. (The Shootout and, of course, Marist.) Losing a Q3 home game, though, is a great way to start throwing away whatever chance you may have. They definitely start to matter now.
Team Fingerprint
These guys are just going to chuck it from the cheap seats. Almost half of their shots are three pointers. They aren’t terribly good at it, mind you, but like every real set of American heroes, they don’t let that stop them. Weirdly, they are actually pretty good inside the arc and they move the ball really well. They’re currently 69th overall in offensive efficiency because they don’t really do anything horribly, they just undermine that by shooting way too many three pointers. They’ve shot over 38% from behind the arc once, Xavier has done it five times.
Defensively, the Bluejays don’t commit fouls or rebound the ball. They allow a high percentage from behind the arc, but they are 7th in the nation in limiting their opponent’s attempts. That, more than percentage allowed, is the mark of a good three point defense. Obviously, that’s probably going to be the story of this game. Creighton is fifth in the nation at percentage of points allowed inside the arc. Xavier is 330th in the nation at scoring inside the arc.
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Players
Before we get too far into it, I want it to be noted that this is just my best guess at how Creighton will start the game. Greg McDermott shook up the rotation significantly last time out against Kansas State, adding three new starters to the mix and only playing six dudes down the stretch. He cited a lack of fight from the usual starters as his reason for shuffling things around.
It’s worth noting that Creighton lost the game to Kansas State. They were down as many as 20 in the second half but had a game-tying shot in the air with just over two minutes to play. It didn’t connect, and they faded from there to lose by seven. Your guess is as good as mine regarding how that will affect the lineup today.
Starters
|
|
Starting matchups |
|
|---|---|---|
|
Ty Davis |
Point Guard |
All Wright |
|
Sophomore |
Class |
Sophomore |
|
“6’4″”, 190″ |
Measurements |
“6’3″”, 190″ |
|
2.2/1.3/1.2 |
Game line |
10.7/1.9/2.5 |
|
43.8/40/66.7 |
Shooting line |
46.6/48.9/87.5 |
|
|
Davis got his first start of the season and a career high in minutes against K-State, returning a respectable 5/2/5 line with just 1 missed shot and 1 turnover. There’s not a lot of tape on him, but he has been a touch foul prone as a defender and hasn’t done much else of note statistically. His turnover rate is inflated by one bad game early on; he has been fairly tight with the ball recently. |
|
|
Austin Swartz |
Shooting Guard |
Malik Messina-Moore |
|
Sophomore |
Class |
Senior |
|
“6’4″”, 205″ |
Measurements |
“6’5″”, 200″ |
|
5.2/2.3/1.2 |
Game line |
6.8/3/4.2 |
|
35.3/29.7/0 |
Shooting line |
30.6/24.3/73.3 |
|
|
Swartz got his first start of the season and a Creighton career high in minutes against K-State, though he had gotten significant run last year at Miami (FL). He’s a shooter who takes about three quarters of his shots from deep on his career despite connecting at just a 30% rate. He’ll play good defense and get on the glass well for a guard, but until his shooting improves, he’ll have a tough time meriting consistent playing time. |
|
|
Josh Dix |
Small Forward |
Tre Carroll |
|
Senior |
Class |
Senior |
|
“6’6″”, 205″ |
Measurements |
“6’8″”, 235″ |
|
12.3/3/2.9 |
Game line |
16.9/5.7/2.8 |
|
43.7/34.5/93.3 |
Shooting line |
47.7/39.6/60.5 |
|
|
Dix is somehow the only double-digit scorer on the roster for Creighton. He’s an Iowa transfer who can score at all three levels and is nails from the free throw line. Most of his shots will come off the bounce and he’s not afraid to dribble into a three. He’s not a super high usage guy, but the Bluejays might need him to be unless someone else steps up in a big way. |
|
|
Jasen Green |
Power Forward |
Filip Borovicanin |
|
Junior |
Class |
Senior |
|
“6’8″”, 235″ |
Measurements |
“6’9″”, 227″ |
|
8.9/4.6/2.8 |
Game line |
8.9/7.4/4 |
|
49.1/38.1/72.7 |
Shooting line |
48.2/28.1/87.5 |
|
|
Green has been ultra-efficient and seen his usage rise every year at Creighton. Last year he shot 73% inside the arc; this year he’s shooting 38% from beyond it. He’s not a great rebounder by percentages and only a decent defender, but he won’t hurt you by wasting possessions and he doesn’t need his number called to much to make his presence felt. I’m really interested to see how McDermott handles the starting matchups; I’d be willing to bet he draws Carroll instead of Borovicanin to begin with. |
|
|
Isaac Traudt |
Center |
Jovan Milicevic |
|
Junior |
Class |
Sophomore |
|
“6’10″”, 235″ |
Measurements |
“6’10″”, 241″ |
|
6.8/2.8/0.6 |
Game line |
12.9/4.2/1.3 |
|
39.6/41.3/77.8 |
Shooting line |
42.7/42.9/65.6 |
|
|
If you like big men who shoot the three well, never turn the ball over, and don’t really rebound, Traudt is your guy. He’s a career 40% shooter from deep and takes 80% of his shots from out there. He can be a tough matchup for traditional bigs or defenders caught in rotation, but if his shot isn’t falling, he doesn’t impact the game in many other ways. |
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Reserves
Blake Harper is a 6’7″ sophomore forward averaging 9.2/5.3/1.6 per game. He’s a good shooter with range beyond the arc and an excellent defensive rebounder. He’s also apparently in McDermott’s doghouse, with the K-State game being the first one he didn’t start this year and a season low in minutes, including none in the second half.
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Nik Graves is a 6’2″ Charlotte transfer who had been the starting point guard until last game. He averages 8.9/3/3.2 per game and has impressive assist and steal rates, but he’s shooting a gruesome 21.4% from deep and taking half his shots from there. He grabbed a total of 0 second half minutes against K-State.
Big man Owen Freeman joins the troika of surprise bench players, having started eight straight before coming off the pine last time out. He’s a 6’10” junior averaging 8.5/5.2/1 per game. He rebounds well on both ends, is a strong defender, and boasts a gaudy 125.7 ORtg. He only got 11 minutes against Kansas State and didn’t feature in winning time.
Who did get clutch run – aside from the starters – was Fedor Zugic. The 6’6″ wing is averaging 4/1.3/1 this year and not shooting particularly well, but something has him inside McDermott’s circle of trust, because he got a season-high 21 minutes against Kansas State and returned 7 and 2 for the trouble.joel dobney
That’s the bench players of note for Creighton, though if you’ve made it this far you’ll have surmised that their rotation is a bit of a mystery to me. I don’t feel too bad for not being able to figure it out, because Greg McDermott hasn’t either and he’s a good coach. Some combination of those four guys plus the five dudes in the starters grid will carry the bulk of the load for Creighton; we’ll have to find out together exactly who it will be.
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Three Questions
– Who controls the pace? Xavier plays offense very quickly. Creighton does everything slowly. On defense the way Xavier plays and the way Creighton plays will actually mesh reasonably well, Xavier doesn’t speed teams up on defense. It’s when Xavier has the ball that gears will grind. They want to go fast and shoot threes quickly, which brings us to…
– Who controls the arc? Xavier isn’t just heaving, but they aren’t bashful from behind the arc. If they get a good look, it’s going up. Creighton is better than almost everyone at preventing three point shots. Xavier is elite in ball movement, Creighton is 34th in the nation in shutting it down. Almost everything these teams do on that end of the floor will be in direct conflict with the other team’s style.
– Can Malik Messina-Moore finally break out? The one thing that could throw Creighton off would be Xavier’s erstwhile shooter finding the range. Messina Moore has never shot below 36% for a season and is a career 37.8% shooter from deep. This year he’s at 24.3% and has made one three pointer in the last month. If he can make two in this game, the floor will open up.
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Three Keys
– Contain Dix and Graves: Nik Graves isn’t having a great year and lost significant time last game. Josh Dix is the leading scorer but has a reasonably low usage rate. Both can get torch hot and have gone for 30. Dix very nearly carried Creighton past Kansas St. Both are competent shooters who have no compunction about lifting and a coach who gives no one the red light.
– Win the battle of the boards: The Jays sort of go to the offensive glass, where Xavier tends to hold their own quite well. It’s on the other end that things get interesting. The Musketeers spread the floor well, which leaves them in poor position to collect their misses. Creighton doesn’t defensive rebound very well though, so the chances will be there. Perhaps this is a chance for Anthony Robinson or Pape N’Diaye to make a statement.
– Don’t leave points at the line: Xavier is an awful 67.6% at the line. Creighton is fourth in the nation at not sending opponents to the line. X cannot afford to miss their chances on the times they get to the line, because this is likely to be a close one.
