These teams have met three times. The first, back in 1979 it’s hard to know too awfully much about. After all, that game happened before I was born. The second time happened in 2008. If you don’t know about that one, well, you should. The last meeting was December 3rd of 2022. Sean Miller had a team struggling in the non-con in his first year back, but he and they played a blinder in the second half to knock off Bob Huggins by 10. The last two of those games felt weighted with something.
This one… does not. Xavier is 98th in the KenPom, WVU is 62nd. This game will likely be a Q2 for X if they can get it, but it is only the true optimists among us that think that will end up mattering at any point. West Virginia has thumped Pitt, beaten some other teams that technically play D1 basketball, and lost to Clemson by blowing a double digit lead and then allowing a 13-2 run. These are not the teams of yesteryear. That’s a lot different than saying this game doesn’t matter in the context of what is happening here.
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Xavier’s minutes continuity (the measure of minutes the returning players played for this program last season) is 0%. West Virginia’s minutes continuity is 0%. Both of these teams returned no one from the team they were the season before. Ross Hodge was hired by the Mountaineers a day after Richard Pitino landed at Xavier. They were two of the most sought after names in the coaching carousel. Like Pitino, Hodge brought guys with him (Brenen Lorient and Jasper Floyd). Unlike Pitino, Hodge has three freshman, including former Xavier commit Jayden Forsyth, playing for him. These established programs are searching for their new identity. They meet having a lot in common with each other, and nothing beyond laundry in common with who they were last season.
Team Fingerprint
Slooooooowww. I mean, so slow. I’m in my 40s, sick, and nursing a bum achilles. There’s a chance I could still keep up with West Virginia’s pace. (Not really.) In reality, this offense is in no hurry. They work the ball around for a shot they will most likely miss and won’t rebound. They get to the line a lot, but they aren’t very good once they’re there. In fact, they’re worse than Xavier. They don’t turn the ball over much, and all that patience means they average a little over a point per possession despite having the nation’s 106th most efficient offense. If you thought watching Georgia run all over was fun, you aren’t going to like this.
Defensively these guys are pretty good. They force turnovers, they don’t allow offensive rebounds at all, and the stifle teams inside the arc. (Joke’s on them, Xavier is self-stifling.) They don’t block many shots, but they do come up with steals. That combo means that they don’t take many risks that lead to a team shooting many free throws against them. And, as always, they make teams play slowly.
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Players
Starters
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Starting matchups |
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Jasper Floyd |
Point Guard |
All Wright |
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Senior |
Class |
Sophomore |
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6’3″, 195 |
Measurements |
6’3″, 190 |
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10.5/3.3/4.2 |
Game line |
10.7/1.5/1.7 |
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48.9/50/68.2 |
Shooting line |
43.8/12.5/80 |
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Floyd is a tenacious defender who picks his spots on offense. He uses the ball a lot, but mostly through passing. His shooting numbers inside the arc would make him right at home on X. Just a solid point. |
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Honor Huff |
Shooting Guard |
Malik Messina-Moore |
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Senior |
Class |
Senior |
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5’10”, 165 |
Measurements |
6’5″, 200 |
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17.2/1.8/0.3 |
Game line |
8.2/2.8/4 |
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42.4/44.9/81.6 |
Shooting line |
28.3/32/68.2 |
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Honor is here to get buckets. That’s what he does, and that’s what he cares about. He’s a great three point shooter who has taken over 400 more threes than twos in his career. Lose him at your peril. |
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Treysen Eaglestaff |
Small Forward |
Tre Carroll |
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Senior |
Class |
Senior |
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6’6″, 205 |
Measurements |
6’8″, 235 |
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5/3.5/0.8 |
Game line |
15.7/5.8/2.5 |
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24.4/22.7/55.6 |
Shooting line |
44.6/33.3/73.1 |
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I wanted Xavier to get this guy, but not because of what he is doing this year. Last season at NDSU he was a stat stuffer. This season he has made 10 of his 41 shots and his assist rate has dipped as his turnover rate rose. It’s been a rough season. |
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Brenen Lorient |
Power Forward |
Filip Borovicanin |
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Senior |
Class |
Senior |
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6’9″, 215 |
Measurements |
6’9″, 227 |
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11.3/7/2 |
Game line |
8/6.5/3.7 |
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47.2/25/75 |
Shooting line |
43.8/12.5/80 |
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Lorient is a rare combination of a guy who blocks a lot of shots and is also an excellent defensive rebounder. He scores efficiently in close but insists on taking the occasional three. If Xavier gets block double digit times again, most will come from him. |
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Harlan Obioha |
Center |
Jovan Milicevic |
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Senior |
Class |
Sophomore |
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7’0″, 265 |
Measurements |
6’10”, 241 |
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8.5/6/1.7 |
Game line |
12.5/3.5/0.8 |
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58.6/0/58.6 |
Shooting line |
41.1/42.4/75 |
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Obioha has excellent rebounding rates and knows his game is around the bucket. He is big and hard to move and won’t be baited into leaving his area much. It will be interesting to see how West Virginia decides to handle Xavier’s bigs with theirs. |
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Reserves
Chance Moore played his first game against Clemson and scored 16 in 24 minutes. He was a bucket getter at St. Bonaventure, and he’s the same here, the fourth team he’s played for. He’s a 6-6 forward who isn’t afraid to step outside and is a good defensive rebounder. DJ Thomas will likely be the next guy off the bench. He’s also a forward, though he’s larger at 6-9 and more likely to step outside. He’s excellent inside the arc. Morris Ugusuk is the first guard off the bench. He averages 20 minutes a game has not turned the ball over yet this season. His stat profile is that of a guy who just keeps things ticking over, but he shot 40% behind the arc for South Carolina last season. Amir Jenkins is the final main piece off the bench. The freshman guard is shooting horribly this season, but has opened play up for his teammates a lot with a 33.1% assist rate.
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Three Questions
– Will Xavier stop getting blocked any time soon? Xavier has been blocked on a frankly shocking 17.1% of their shot attempts this season, good for 361st in the nation. West Va doesn’t block a ton of shots, but we’ll have to see if that stops the Musketeers from getting their stuff thrown.
– Can Xavier keep shooting the three? West Virginia allows a decent amount of three point attempts. Xavier takes 46% of their attempts from there. Given the way they shoot inside, that’s more than understandable. The announcers at some point will say that Xavier needs to establish the paint. Ignore them. Xavier needs to heave.
– Is Jovan Milicevic the guy? Xavier punched with Georgia early because the big Canadian with the eastern European name (doesn’t he sound like he should be a striker for Slavia Praha?) stuck three straight. He also almost secured the game winning rebound with 27 seconds to go. Milicevic both stretches the floor and gives Xavier an interior presence. All Wright definitely backs himself, but Milicevic seems to be making the difference right now.
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Three Keys
– Run: West Virginia hasn’t played a 70 possession game yet. They aren’t exactly deep in confirmed talent in a way Xavier isn’t, they’ve just papered over that by playing extremely slowly. Let’s find out if they can go.
– Force turnovers: Xavier has won both games they’ve turned the opposition over 20% or more of the time. West Virginia plays slowly so they don’t turn the ball over much. Something that would speed the Mountaineers up and get Xavier easy points would be pretty useful.
– Play the whole first half: Against both Georgia and Iowa Xavier put together a good 16 minutes followed by four of absolute garbage. In both games, that cost them dearly. The Musketeers aren’t deep, but they need to find a way to have the legs to close out a half. That could mean someone from the bench has to actually do a job. It could just mean a bit of composure from the four and Good/Bad Roddie.
